Landsec warns over risk of ‘unliveable’ cities

The UK’s largest commercial property developer has issued a stark warning that our cities could become unliveable in the next decade without urgent policy reform across planning, development and business rates.

Landsec issued the grave prognosis on the back of new research carried out in collaboration with consultancy the Future Laboratory.

The Shaping Successful Future Cities report argues that urban spaces have the potential to thrive, despite challenging circumstances, if meaningful policy reform is initiated and businesses such as Landsec fully commit to net zero.

Without this, the report adds, some of our urban spaces could be unliveable in as little as 10 years. The worst-case, “do nothing” scenario outlines a future in which urban planning and construction take no heed of their environmental impact or climate change, and a lack of action on social inequality results in deepening divisions.

Landsec chief executive Mark Allan (pictured) said: “We are at a crossroads when it comes to the future of our cities.

“For the good of our nation’s competitiveness and the opportunities it will provide our communities, we need to focus on the future of our cities today.”

He added: “Put simply, we need to act now – starting with urgently needed policy reform – to achieve a more prosperous and positive future for all.”

Mike Hood, chief executive of Landsec’s regeneration division and former managing director of developer U+I, which the FTSE 100 REIT bought in late 2021, said it was critical for the business – and the wider sector – to drive change. “We can’t afford not to,” he said.

Landsec has brought together a panel of industry experts – including Google sustainability lead Adam Elman and Homes England board member Sadie Morgan – to help devise Six Principles of Urbanisation. Top of its list is for cities to be climate prepared, resilient to change and external shocks, and desirable as places to live.

“These are guiding principles, so this isn’t a work stream. We invest in this. This is absolutely the core of what we do,” Hood said, pointing to Landsec’s work on the 24-acre Mayfield regeneration project in Manchester as a prime example.

Without these principles, there will be a danger of value erosion, he added. “If we create places that communities value, then we believe firmly they are valuable and that this is valuable for our shareholders. But it also creates value in a much broader sense for the places that we create and are long-term custodians of.”

Landsec is also calling for urgent action to drive a more immediate city revival in the UK – and help avert the worst-case scenario.

These include pressing government to make sustainable development goals and net-zero commitments mandatory. Landsec will also lobby for increased use of public-private partnerships and greater and more effective devolution.

The business is also demanding wholesale planning reform to create a framework that encourages sustainable development and removes barriers to progress and an overhaul of the current business rates system to incentivise the creation of new jobs and shape successful places.

Four scenarios for the future of our cities

A dystopian future

The worst-case scenario mapped by the paper – The Problematic Future – is a city which is virtually unliveable. It is one where urban planning and construction have taken no heed of their environmental impact or climate change, and a lack of action on social inequality results in deepening divisions.

Adapting and evolving

In this “probable future”, cities will evolve by retrofitting their existing infrastructure and responding to new technology, and social resilience will be as important as physical resilience.

Collective and vitalising

This “possible future” is one where the city is focused on safety, equitability and health. It is a city that is emotionally intelligent and empathetic to the needs of all urban dwellers, not just the most productive – making it desirable for all.

Green and flourishing

The report has also mapped the “best-case scenario”. The “prosperous future” provides a stark contrast to the first scenario. It is a city which acknowledges that in order for people to flourish, the environment around them must be protected to flourish as well.

Landsec’s six principles of urbanisation

Climate-prepared – protects citizens and ensures the built environment is green, efficient and a generator of crucial resources
Resilience – copes with change and external shocks; well-networked, diversified and not solely reliant on international supply chains
Desirable – provides a high quality of life
Responsive – uses the best of technology
Equitable – promotes diversity and ensures fair and equal access to services
Polycentric – challenges traditional city structure with one centre – instead promotes a multi-nodal model –with a network of smaller decentralised hubs, which harness local identity

The panel of experts included