NEWCASTLE
What was the state of the market 10 years ago?
“The main focus of commercial activity was around the Quayside, with headline office rents of £13 per sq ft. The area was the only blank canvas in the city centre.”
Tony Hordon, DTZ
How will the market develop over the next 10 years?
“Former enterprise zones will see speculative development over the next year or two to protect tax breaks but it is not likely anywhere else. There are very limited prospects for rental growth except as a result of supply shortage at top end.”
Michael Cuthbertson, GVA Grimley
Which developments in the past 10 years have had the biggest impact?
“Parabola Estates’ Central Square, behind Newcastle station, was a pioneering development in an area not known for commercial activity, moving rents up to £17.50 per sq ft.”
Tony Hordon, DTZ
“Quorum and Cobalt have been significant because of the sheer level of inward investment attracted through their enterprise zone status, which has delivered exceptional deals for occupiers. Silverlink’s Trinity Gardens showed that occupiers are happy to pay for the right quality of stock in the right location.”
Tim Evans, Knight Frank
Which schemes will shape the market in the coming decade?
“In the next three to five years, we’ll see office and retail development at Brookfield’s East Pilgrim Street, Silverlink’s Stephenson Quarter, ING’s Science Central and the Gateshead Quays. These will be the first major developments of the decade and are likely to follow a period of inertia when the city is starved of new supply.”
Michael Cuthbertson, GVA Grimley
Who were the key occupiers 10 years ago?
“Law firms were key occupiers, acquiring the largest areas of space.”
Tony Hordon, DTZ
Which sectors will drive demand over the next 10 years?
“Science Central is a big push by the public sector to bring in science and technology. Knowledge-based industries are where we see potential for growth, as financials and the public sector decline in importance.”
Michael Cuthbertson, GVA Grimley
Who were the most influential developers 10 years ago?
“Parabola Estates had the vision to see the potential of the area south of Central Station. Highbridge has delivered about 1.5m sq ft at Cobalt in the last 10 years.”
Michael Cuthbertson, GVA Grimley
Over the next decade, who will be the most prominent developers?
“Quorum Development Partners at Quorum Business Park, as the funding is in place to complete the development of close to 1m sq ft. Silverlink Developments has consent for the 10-acre Stephenson Quarter – one of the biggest mixed-use schemes in the city. UK Land Estates has several sites and the foundation of a good investment portfolio.”
Tim Evans, Knight Frank
“Brookfield has the muscle to deliver retail at East Pilgrim Street.” (Plans for an £800m mixed-use project at the 42-acre site are on hold.)
Michael Cuthbertson, GVA Grimley
Which agencies dominated the market 10 years ago?
“It was local agents such as Sanderson Townend & Gilbert and Storey Sons & Parker. This has changed, with the national agencies looking to have more of a presence.”
Tony Hordon, DTZ
How will the agency landscape change over the next decade?
“We will continue to see individuals setting up their own practices and also individuals providing the resource to set up new offices for more established brands.”
Tony Hordon, DTZ
EDINBURGH
What was the state of the market 10 years ago?
“The Edinburgh office market was very active with the financial and technology sectors being the predominant driving forces. The Edinburgh market was suffering from undersupply and there were not many speculative developments under construction. Rents were £29 per sq ft with minimal incentives.”
Cameron Stott, Jones Lang LaSalle
How will the market develop over the next 10 years?
“Any new development in Edinburgh will only occur with a prelet in place. There will be rental growth but not for the next couple of years. Speculative development will return but this is related to rental growth and a reduction in incentive packages.”
Nadir Khan-Juhoor, Knight Frank
Which developments in the past 10 years have had the biggest impact?
“The most significant development in the city has taken place in the Exchange District, extending up to Edinburgh Quay. This area has been a catalyst for the market by setting new headline rents. For example, Edinburgh Quay 2 achieved £28.50 per sq ft in 2008. Slightly higher rents have been achieved but these were on smaller suites.”
Nadir Khan-Juhoor, Knight Frank
“Edinburgh Park provided a plentiful supply of much needed grade A open-plan accommodation that simply could not be provided in the city centre.”
Andrew Cartmail, BNP Paribas RE
Which schemes will shape the market in the coming decade?
“St James Quarter (pictured), where Henderson Global Investors has planning consent for a mixed-use scheme including 1m sq ft of retail. Once complete – in 2015 or so – Edinburgh city centre will again be positioned as a major retail destination.”
Toby Withall, Knight Frank
Who were the key occupiers 10 years ago?
“The dominant sectors were technology and financial services – Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Scotland and Standard Life.”
Cameron Stott, Jones Lang LaSalle
Which sectors will drive demand over the next 10 years?
“The outsourcing, utilities and energy sectors. The public sector will not acquire more space in the short to medium term but will rationalise space.”
Keith Aitken, Savills
Who were the most influential developers 10 years ago?
“Scotland-based property companies who dominated the market until recently. Developers that undertook the most notable schemes included New Edinburgh Limited for Edinburgh Park and Millers for Edinburgh Quay.”
Cameron Stott, Jones Lang LaSalle
Over the next decade, who will be the most prominent developers?
“A number of the recognised Scottish property companies may not recover from the recession. However, we are seeing some London-based developers previously inactive in Edinburgh casting their eye on the market.” Cameron Stott, Jones Lang LaSalle
Which agencies dominated the market 10 years ago?
“Ryden, Jones Lang LaSalle, DTZ, Knight Frank, GVA Grimley, Montagu Evans and Hillier Parker (now CBRE).”
Nadir Khan-Juhoor, Knight Frank
How will the agency landscape change over the next decade?
“There will be a radical change in terms of how we get paid by our clients. There are now too many agents chasing too small a market. Therefore, it’s likely we will see more mergers in coming years.”
Keith Aitken, Savills
GLASGOW
What was the state of the market 10 years ago?
“Glasgow was just emerging from the early 1990s recession. Rents were around £20 per sq ft and development was taking place.”
Sinclair Browne, Knight Frank
How will the market develop over the next 10 years?
“It’s unlikely that any new space will be delivered until 2013 at the earliest. In the retail market, the extension of Ivanhoe Cambridge’s St Enoch Centre and the proposed extension of Land Securities and Henderson’s Buchanan Galleries will help cement Glasgow’s retailing reputation. However, it may result in rental stagnation and a reduced quality of retail offer on Argyle Street and Sauchiehall Street.”
Mike Buchan, Jones Lang LaSalle
Which developments in the past 10 years have had the biggest impact?
“Two notable developments have been 141 and 120 Bothwell Street. These speculatively built developments total around 175,000 sq ft and set a new office headline rent of £27.50 per sq ft. Buchanan Galleries has also helped push Glasgow up the retail rankings.”
Sinclair Browne, Knight Frank
Which schemes will shape the market in the coming decade?
“Redevco’s proposed 205,000 sq ft George House at 33 George Square will redefine the area as a prime office location and fill the pipeline gap anticipated in 2014-2015. Out of town, significant incentives will ensure that TAL CPT Land Development Partnership’s 758,000 sq ft Maxim building (pictured) influences the market in the future.”
Mike Buchan, Jones Lang LaSalle
Who were the key occupiers 10 years ago?
“The financial services sector, call centre providers and local indigenous companies.”
Mike Buchan, Jones Lang LaSalle
Which sectors will drive demand over the next 10 years?
“The financial services sector, service providers and outsourcing companies will lead future demand. There will be a major fall in the banking sector and public sector demand due to the well-documented issues relating to both.”
Mike Buchan, Jones Lang LaSalle
Who were the most influential developers 10 years ago?
“Kenmore, Kilmartin, CALA Properties, Miller Group, Morrisons, Premier Property Group, Robertsons and Tulloch. Many were driven and leveraged by Bank of Scotland Corporate. Regrettably, others will follow the sad demise of Kenmore.”
David Davidson, Cushman & Wakefield
Over the next decade, who will be the most prominent developers?
“Miller Group, which has a broad-based business, and BAM Properties, which has international support for its UK business. New Scottish entrepreneurs will also emerge, like they did after the 1990s’ recession.”
David Davidson, Cushman & Wakefield
Which agencies dominated the market 10 years ago?
“Healey & Baker, Hillier Parker, Richard Ellis and Jones Lang Wootton were dominant due to big local coverage and a global attitude towards investment advice. Since then, Glasgow has seen the rise of the niche firm such as Sanders Cartwright, Gunn Property Consultants, SGM and Dalkin & Co . They make an impression with big clients, especially since most of the above big firms have changed or been merged.”
Jonathan Sutton, GL Hearn
How will the agency landscape change over the next decade?
“Many anticipate further mergers/acquisitions as we come out of recession. It is generally thought that the larger companies will become stronger and niche agencies will do well. The danger will be for the medium-sized firms.”
Neil Cockburn, Jones Lang LaSalle
