Every year needs a moniker and 2013 is no different. The year of residential? Perhaps. The year of alternatives? Potentially. The year of the asset manager? Isn’t it always? So how about this: 2013 – a risk-lite 12 months.
Too bold a claim? Well I didn’t say risk-free.
But with the eurozone looking more stable than it has done for some time, the US’s retreat from the edge of its fiscal cliff and a benign domestic Autumn Statement that suggested ministers may no longer regard property as the softest of soft targets, the outlook for the year ahead is as comforting as it has been for some years. Since 2010 perhaps, according to Jones Lang LaSalle head of forecasting Andrew Burrell.
Add to that the welcome news that emerged at the tail end of last year that property had cleared £14bn of its debts in 2012 and that some lenders have their appetite for lending back, and there is plenty of comfort to be drawn.
It’s not all sweetness and light, of course. Banks will only lend to the right clients on the right assets and at – from their point of view – the right margin. Eurozone economic imbalances are far from resolved. And the US fiscal cliff will loom back into view within two months.
But, for now, let’s be positive. And if we can keep up that sentiment until the summer, says JLL, improved fundamentals around jobs, consumer demand and strengthened corporate balance sheets should deliver sustainable growth by the second half of the year.
Last month, Nokia sold its Helsinki headquarters to Finnish investor Exilion Capital for €170m. Said chief financial officer Timo Ihamuotila: “Owning real estate is not part of Nokia’s core business.” In the summer, Amancio Ortega, owner of clothing chain Zara, bought the firm’s London flagship store, 333 Oxford Street, W1, for circa £150m.
Diametrically opposed tactics perhaps, but each highlights how high up the corporate agenda property has soared. Many agents are planning to capitalise; and many more need a global footprint to do so. Servicing corporates will drive corporate activity among agents with scale. Those with a global footprint will seek to deepen their toehold. Those with continental strength will seek to straddle the globe. And those with neither will be asking themselves tough questions about where their future lies.
We take a look at the property names and companies to watch in 2013 this week. I’ll add a few from outside this industry to that list.
French pop star Jean Michel Jarre was in Downing Street recently to talk about moving his business interests to this side of the Channel. Tax is not a consideration, we are told, and we should be encouraged. The more the likes of Jarre see London as a place to find talent and grow digital businesses, the stronger the UK’s economy will be.
Trinity Leeds will be the only new shopping centre to open in 2013 when the ribbon is cut on 21 March. It matters to the city, of course, the wider retail industry and landlord Land Securities. But the opening of Victoria’s Secret’s 10,000 sq ft flagship store is more significant than that. It is the US lingerie retailer’s first outside of London and will be closely watched by the myriad other global retailers who have a an outpost in the capital and are considering expanding beyond.
Still in the city, Leeds Arena will open in September with a concert by local band Kaiser Chiefs, proving that the city’s offer takes in entertainment as well as retail.
Back in London, the Olympic Park’s anniversary weekend of 27 and 28 July will see it host a series of music festivals and music events. Those opening acts will do much to demonstrate that there is Park Life after the Olympics.
