It’s been five long years since the ?collapse of Lehman Brothers but ?finally things are looking up. That’s ?not to get carried away: George ?Osborne was pilloried for being ?incautiously optimistic this week.
It’s little surprise that no one in property wants to call this recovery secure. But as one propco chief exec said to me this week: “It’s 5% better than last year and we’ll take that.”
I’ve written before about how indicators of ?recovery are widespread, geographically and sectorally. Financial indicators are equally encouraging: from Great Portland Estates’ lowest-ever coupon on a corporate bond last week to racy house builder results this. (Indeed, help to buy was conspicuous by its absence from Barratt’s numbers this week, a sure sign that the sector wants to claim the credit for its successes rather than see kudos leak and wash up at the door of government.) And with signs that the constraints imposed by top-of-the-market swaps may lift, previously frozen parts of the market will begin to thaw.
Yet it wouldn’t take much to knock us off track. Syria is the biggest worry, though the eurozone remains in the woods.
Have we learnt lessons from the last boom and bust? Inevitably memories will grow hazier as the recovery gains momentum.
The resi market in much of London is growing ever hotter and one banker suggested to me this week that we might want to consider introducing a Lender of the Year category at the Estates Gazette Awards. Too soon, I said.
Nevertheless, perhaps it may be time to look forward to the next five years with hope, rather than back on the last five with horror.
¦ If you think the above premise is too optimistic, let us know. Our last sentiment survey, run quarterly in association with Grosvenor, painted a picture of resurging confidence in the market. It came ahead of the uptick in activity, proving its worth as an indicator. For our latest, we want to know whether there is momentum in the improved outlook. Let us know by clicking here. An iPad Mini could be yours.
¦ West London’s Queensway has long been grotty, while has suffered since Westfield London opened five years ago. But that could be about to change after an ambitious – and impressively discreet – piece of land assembly by Johnny Sandelson. The Brunei royal family is behind the £500m project to transform the area. It’s long overdue.
¦ To complement our expanded comment section in print (and this week’s section covering the anniversary of Lehman Brothers collapse is especially strong) we’re growing our online comment area too (www.estatesgazette.com/blogs). Our journalists and researchers continue to get under the skin of what’s going on (they were out in force this week at events from Corenet in Amsterdam to the BCSC and the Thames Valley Property Forum).
Meanwhile, those who are propelling change in a sometimes ?resistant world, not least UKR’s Jackie Sadek, continue to stir ?the pot. We’ve added another section this week, from our data ?editor Nadia Elghamry. Property in Numbers showcases the best ?of our – and your – research to demonstrate what’s really going ?on in a recovering market. You’ll hear from more new voices in the coming weeks.
¦ Speaking of BCSC, its call to move its annual conference to London for the first time in its history seemed to pay off. It was a reaction to a strong London show being stage by an emerging rival, Completely Retail Market Place, but the event at Olympia was enthusiastically embraced by most. The halls heaved on Wednesday, though Thursday was quieter, with malcontents pretty thin on the ground. It’s back in London next year and who knows in 2015. But it would be a shame if it didn’t visit the likes of Manchester or Liverpool again.
2015 should look beyond London.
Damian.Wild@estatesgazette.com
