As the Christmas party season gets under way, North West property folk are preparing to spend a lot of drinking time together. And what better way to fill the evening than with “Watch, forget or buy“ – the fun game anyone can play about key sites’ prospects in 2014? EG gathered a few regulars round a small wobbly table covered in beer puddles, and asked them to make their snap judgements. David Thame kept the tab
Logistics North
Where: J4 M61, Bolton Who: Harworth Estates
Current position: Harworth applied for planning permission in September for the former open cast coalmine site at Cutacre in Bolton. The scheme will comprise 4m sq ft of bespoke buildings, ranging in size from 161,000 sq ft to 1m sq ft. Harworth has already agreed to sell the first site to Aldi, the supermarket group, for its new 450,000 sq ft regional distribution hub. Another 10 acres are believed to have been sold to a defence contractor.
What happens in 2014?: A Harworth spokesman says: “There are two key milestones that are planning permission dependent. The anticipated infrastructure start date is spring 2014, with completion dependent on phasing by summer 2015, so first occupiers will be on then at the earliest.” Bolton Council will be considering the Logistics North application next month (December 2013).
The market says: A good Lancastrian expression sums it up well: This site is hot toffee. It is said to be a pole position for a 35-acre Ocado/Morrisons depot requirement, and other interested parties are forming a queue. Jason Print, partner at Cushman & Wakefield, says: “This is the hot site of 2014, taking over where Omega left off in 2013.”
Verdict at the table: Buy buy buy.
Cuerden
Where: Interchange of M6, M61 & M65 near Preston
Who: Lancashire county council
Current position: Having bought the 156-acre site in 2012, in an effort to unblock a 20-year development log jam, the county council has yet to submit planning, but in April 2013 authorised the sale of part of the site. Around 1m sq ft of mixed use development is said to be envisaged. Housing, warehousing and offices are likely.
What happens in 2014?: With luck, a planning application is approved by South Ribble council. Lancashire county council refused to talk about the site or its plans.
The market says: The site has been on the official list of strategic regional investment sites for decades. Hopes the county could push it forward have turned out to be optimistic. Mike Rooney, head of industrial agency at WHR Property Consultants, says: “Cuerden isn‘t on anyone’s radar. The fact is, Preston is still a bridge too far north for many occupiers, and the site is a long way behind its rivals on planning and preparation.”
Verdict at the table: The jury’s out.
Former Shell site
Where: Carrington Moss, West Manchester
Who: Langtree
Current position: Langtree’s successful bid to redevelop Shell’s 1,655-acre site moves into its next stage with the contract due to complete on 31 December 2013. Around 185 acres – perhaps more – will be allocated for what is expected to be a logistics and industrial development on the fringe of popular Trafford Park. There will also be around 1,500 new homes. Langtree refused to comment, as did Shell’s adviser Jones Lang LaSalle.
What happens in 2014?: Langtree will spend the year sorting out estate management issues with existing tenants, there will be some site remediation to consider and, above all, they need to work on a master plan. Talks with stakeholders and adjacent landowners are said to be under way already.
The market says: Enthusiastic about long-term prospects, but
not expecting fireworks in 2014. Tom Davis, partner at B8 Real Estate, says: “It’s a fantastic location, and the proximity to Trafford is going to be important. It will gather momentum over the next few years.”
Verdict at the table: Watch closely.
Omega South
Where: J8 M62, Warrington Who: Omega Warrington Ltd
Current position: There have been deals and planning consents for around 1.6m sq ft of warehouse space over the past 12 months. The year ended with a 583,000 sq ft regional logistics centre for Asda, the first phase of a wider emerging mixed-use masterplan for the remaining plots on the 446-acre Omega South site not already consented for 1.5m sq ft offices.
What happens in 2014?: If planning issues are resolved more deals are a racing certainty. A spokeswoman for the developer consortium, led by Miller Developments, says: “It is expected that the further elements of the Omega Masterplan will go out to public consultation over the winter.”
The market says: Excited. Can’t wait – but may have to. Tom Davis, partner at B8 Real Estate, says: “There’s still a long way to go on planning, so maybe we won’t see pre-lets in 2014.“
Jason Print, partner at Cushman & Wakefield, adds: “Omega will be quieter in 2014 than it was in 2013, with the timing of the new road infrastructure likely to slow things down – but there’s definitely occupier interest.”
Verdict at the table: Watch, then buy.
Airport city
Where: M56, Manchester Airport
Who: Beijing Construction and Engineering Group, Carillion, Greater Manchester Pension Fund and Argent
Current position: In October Manchester Airport Group chose its joint venture partners for the £800m project. The 5m sq ft offices and warehousing scheme includes 1.5m sq ft of offices; 650,000 sq ft advanced manufacturing; 2,400 hotel beds; and 1.4m sq ft of air freight logistics space. The site was awarded enterprise zone status in 2011.
What happens in 2014?: Contracts will be signed for the first phase of enabling and infrastructure works. Early in the year Argent will start the process of selecting advisory and design teams to take forward the detailed designs for the first phase of buildings. The A6 link road has just won £165m of funding, which will open up access to the south. An Airport City spokesman says: “If tenant interest turns into lettings, then we could be on site in late 2014 with a first building, subject to reserved matters planning.”
The market says: There’s already fevered talk of pre-lets in the 1.4m sq ft World Logistics Hub. Mike Rooney, head of industrial at WHR Property, says: “The site is fantastic for logistics, and airport-centric development will have plenty of occupiers looking at it.“
Verdict at the table: Watch… it has political muscle behind it.
Salford central
Where: Area around Chapel Street and New Bailey, Salford
Who: Muse Developments
Current position: The £650m mixed development of the left (Salford) bank of the Irwell includes Chapel Street – with a retail and residential feel – and New Bailey, with a strong office focus.
A 143-bed Premier Inn and first phase of residential development at Vimto Gardens are already under way.
What happens in 2014?: Could be a big leap forward. Muse is believed to be close to agreeing a funding deal with Salford City Council to allow it to speculatively build an office block of 100,000-120,000 sq ft. This would open up the New Bailey business area immediately opposite Spinningfields. Work on the £200m Ordsall Chord rail link will move forward, ready for a 2015 start. Muse director Mike Horner says: “The Ordsall Chord will be a big benefit to Salford because it puts Salford Central at the heart of the rail network and our site is on the doorstep. It will be brilliant.”
The market says: Slight difference of opinion. One senior property person says: “Salford central will be occupier-led, and there are probably better sites to go to. So I‘d tend to forget it.” But Patrick Joyson, managing partner at Savills in Manchester, says: ”The Ordsall Chord is going to open up the city and we must assume it will have a really positive impact on sites like New Bailey.”
Verdict at the table: Watch or buy.
