How often do you lie in bed at night worrying about a robot stealing your job? One would hope it is not that often.
There is very little that can be effectively sorted out in the dark at 3am – including anticipating and planning for an android invasion, but there are scientists out there who do lie awake thinking about it. And for them, it is a real concern.
They spend their evenings – and a lot of the day for that matter – considering a future where machines have taken over swathes of jobs currently done by humans. What will it mean for employment? What will it mean for the economy? Who is most at risk?
And then there is one man who has asked another, key question. What will this mean for the design and development of property?
This is not a late April Fool’s day joke – future economist Graeme Maxton is convinced that the property sector needs to wise up to the possibility – or in his opinion, the inevitability – of a world where jobs have been taken over by various forms of artificial intelligence (AI). And these are skilled jobs – being done by millions of people taking up office space.
“Forecasting what is likely to happen in the future based on the past really bothers me,” says Maxton.
“It is a big worry because the past is just that. It cannot be used as a reference point in such a fast changing technological society.
“Within a decade there will be huge numbers of jobs that will have been taken over by machines. That will increase rapidly by 2030. And this will seriously affect the future of buildings.”
His theory is partially based on a list of more than 700 jobs compiled by Oxford University ranked from least to most likely to be taken over by machines in the future. Auditors, accountants, legal secretaries and, sorry to say, real-estate agents were considered some of those considered most at risk of elimination.
So just how likely is this to happen? And how seriously should we be taking Maxton’s warnings? It is worth pointing out that he is not the only one making this argument. Experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Boston are exploring similar theories. But are any of even the most forward-thinking UK property professionals prepared to consider the effect of robots on the commercial real estate of the future?
The second machine age
Threats of robot and android invasions are nothing new. There were theories and resulting fears in the 1930s and again in the 1960s that machines would take over from humans in the workplace. The difference now is that it has actually started to happen in a process that has been described as the “second machine age”. Only this time around the change is of a digital nature rather than industrial.
“If anyone wants to dismiss all possibility of losing their job to a machine, they should talk to someone in the automobile industry,” says specialist agents Pilcher Hershman’s David Rosen.
“It is a sector that 25 years ago was dominated by people. Now, while you have some luxury cars made by hand, the majority are created by machines, arguably much more effectively.”
“It is happening,” adds Niall Firth, technology editor at New Scientist magazine.
“At a more basic level there are factory workers who are losing their jobs in the US to a robot called Baxter. It is an extremely sophisticated machine – a single arm – that not only performs tasks but is smart enough to understand human patterns. Then there are people working in Silicon Valley to create automated accountants and financial auditors. And take Siri – the iPhone application. You can talk to it, get it to manage your diary, remind you of appointments. The ?type of things many administration and secretarial staff currently do.”
Siri, by the way, is not a robot. A robot is a physical entity. The term for wider, virtual entities is AI. What the two have in common is that both were once considered elements of extreme future gazing. But with the speed at which new technology is emerging, the ‘extreme’ is dropping away almost as quickly. And this is where Maxton’s warnings – that a future society needing futuristic buildings to operate in is not as far away as many think – can be considered.
Simon Allford is one of the UK’s most forward-thinking architects. He is the designer behind Google’s new King’s Cross HQ and has been responsible for designing some of London’s most tech-friendly buildings including . His response to Maxton’s vision for the future? “We will never, ever be taken over by robots.”
But that, says Maxton, is not quite the point. It is not that we will be replaced entirely – he agrees that humans will still be needed in the workplace and they will need somewhere to meet and interact with others. The problem will arise if people do not allow themselves to understand the repercussions of technological advances in terms of how they could change the way and how we work.
“One example would be to say that conventional offices will no longer be useful but care homes and hospitals will be more so,” he says. And why? “Because more people in the future are likely to train in healthcare or care services in jobs which are very unlikely to be taken over by machines because they need very high levels of empathy and interaction.”
Luckily for Allford, the buildings he designs are already some of those most likely to survive the AI revolution. What tech and creative occupiers want is flexibility, which is a form of ready-made insurance against a world in which certain jobs may disappear.
John Burns, chief executive of Derwent, explains: “‘Long life, loose fit’ is an expression we have been using.
“Space should be flexible. Not overspecified. You cannot know who is going to occupy the building in the future so the trick is to make it appealing to as many occupiers as possible and that comes from flexibility. And as for the machines? We have already got to the stage at Derwent where we do not create buildings with a particular occupier in mind. Although not everyone develops that way of course.”
So, some real estate professionals are on the right path to handle the second machine age, even if just as a by-product of recognising times are changing rather than making active decisions to future-proof against the rise of the robots. But Maxton says that the wider issue is that many of those in real estate, and beyond, will be totally unprepared because they simply have not allowed themselves to think far enough ahead.
“People do not like change. Particularly big change. They will not think about it at work, or at a conference, or at home. They are far too busy focusing on the job they do and the life they live now. But this is happening. If you look at projections it is inevitable.”
Andrew McAfee, associate director of the centre for digital business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, adds: “Digital tools are being developed with skills they never had before. They are working in tandem with human jobs, and if technology continues along this trajectory it will not be two times better in six years’ time, it will be 16 times better. We are moving into a period when the global economy will become very effective as productivity goes up, but we simply will not need that many humans to do the jobs fuelling that economy.”
Digital anarchy?
It all starts to sounds quite worrying when put like that. Especially as it will not just be commercial offices that are affected. Even restaurants ?are becoming increasingly digital. Ordering food from a menu on mounted iPads is not unusual. Yo! Sushi has not only introduced a conveyor belt system but now also has bona fide robots serving drinks in its . A novelty for the time being, ?but what about in 10 or 20 years’ time?
And the creation of the Google driverless car is another step away from human involvement and control in everyday tasks.
“That car is as cool as it sounds,” said McAfee in a recent seminar at MIT.
“I can assure you it handled all the stops and starts along US101 extremely well. There are 3.5m truck drivers in the US alone who, I expect, could be easily affected by this development.”
Nevertheless, MacAfee insists that the digital ?uprising would create a “utopia rather than a dystopia”. Technological advances mean increased efficiency, productivity and a stronger global economy. ?And as for the predicted job losses and unemployment fears? He insists it may not be all bad and things could work out if only everyone would get their heads around a digital world.
And anyone who does not like the sound of his vision might want to stock up on cocoa. You could be in for a sleepless night.
Emily.Wright@estatesgazette.com
