I was recently asked about the latest scientific evidence concerning climate change and whether this “proved the case” for climate change beyond doubt and, if so, what should we do about it? There are still some doubters but it is increasingly difficult to either find them, or hear rational arguments from them.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the “IPCC”) issued its latest findings in March 2014 in the form of a 2,600-page analysis of the risks from climate change to life, society and economies both now and for the foreseeable future (Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability).
The IPCC has been criticised in the past. Its latest report, however, draws on extensive scientific work and provides a very comprehensive picture of the risks associated with climate change. Some elements of the press previously dismissed IPCC reports but now even the most sceptical seem to have fallen into agreement with the latest report, mainly because it focuses much of its attention on climate adaptation (ie how we cope in a changing climate) rather than almost entirely on mitigation (ie how we slow the change down).
Evidence beyond doubt?
So, to answer the first question posed, we need to consider whether the science is unequivocal. The IPCC is clear in its findings:
“We are now in an era where climate change isn’t some kind of future hypothetical. We live in an era where impacts from climate change are already widespread and consequential.”
The IPCC says that its report provides governments with what they need to be able to form strategies for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and protecting populations from climate change risks. Even the sceptics say that this was their message all along.
The sense of urgency in the IPCC’s findings is still present but its language is more palatable than previously and this seems to have struck a chord. The Telegraph, for example, suggested more thought be “given to how mankind might adapt to the climatic realities” (The climate debate needs more than alarmism, 31 March 2014). Perhaps unsurprisingly, Owen Patterson, agreeing with this sentiment, stated that climate change “is something we can adapt to over time” (The Guardian: Global warming can have a positive side, 30 September 2013)
What to do?
In my last column (EG, 15 February 2014, p84) I focused on the need for pursuing energy efficiency measures in order to mitigate climate change. We still desperately need to do that and focusing on adaptation alone is not a sufficient response. Nonetheless, the IPCC’s focus on adaptation moves us on to consider the second issue I was asked about: how do we adapt to a changing climate now that we all seem to agree that man-made climate change is happening?
In a climate as benign as that in the UK, we can expect to be spared the worst risks climate change will bring – maybe the “mega-disaster” is not for us, but we have already begun to experience life-threatening heatwaves, floods and storms which will, consensus tells us, become more prevalent. We will have to adapt, as others have, by moving roads and railways inland, diverting rivers and abandoning farmland.
The built environment
We shall certainly have to do something with our buildings as well. In overall terms, we will have to rethink our approach to ensuring that the design, construction and occupation of buildings are more resilient; there is, thankfully, research being undertaken in this area (the Technology Strategy Board is funding some of this).
The key factors we shall have to deal with in the UK in general terms, for example, are that we shall face warmer weather on average; over a period of, say 50 years, we will have a climate in London like that of the south of France today. This might sound quite welcome, but sadly our buildings, most of which will still be around then, are not designed for that climate. Many of them will be unbearably hot in summer. We will also have to contend with both wetter and drier weather – too much water and not enough of it. And, to cap it all, we shall have a lot more “high impact” weather, such as storms and heavy, persistent rainfall. All of these factors will mean we will need to design, build and occupy buildings differently.
Some of the means by which we shall need to adapt to climate change in the built environment in order to be more resilient include:
Design: thinking about comfort differently – approaches to cooling buildings passively will be developed. Drainage systems will need to cope with sudden deluges, as well as the storage of water during more frequent droughts.
Construction: everything from the suitability of foundations to the stability of buildings and their weather tightness will need to be rethought, as will delivery timescales during very hot weather.
Occupation: making more efficient use of heating and cooling and changing patterns of use of buildings. Desire for passive cooling might shift locational preferences to those away from polluted city centres. Energy shortages/power outages may become more common.
Embedding these responses will take time, but given the scale of the issue – most buildings still standing in 50 years’ time already exist today – we need to be thinking about retrofitting options that will deal with climate change adaptation soon. I have recently advised clients, based on modelling we have undertaken, that air-conditioning system replacements being planned now (for systems at the end of their working life or imminently obsolete because of F-Gas regulations) should be specified with climate change impacts in mind.
Building insurers are beginning to demand change in this area and lease terms will increasingly reflect the need to address climate.
Miles Keeping is a partner at ?Deloitte Real Estate
