The property world would have to face up to the prospect of a “semi-permanent left-wing government” in Scotland in the event of a yes vote in this month’s referendum, according to a panel of experts at a debate hosted by AEW last night.
“It is hard to say what the political implications for the industry would be,” said James Hyslop, consultant at AEW UK.
Uncertainty over politics, tax structure and currency in the event of a yes vote would lead to a “prolonged discount” to Scottish property, he added.
Occupier demand from the financial services industry could suffer if Scotland leaves the union, as major institutions could shift their operations to London, panellists said.
However, the oil industry would remain a major driver of occupier demand in Aberdeen regardless of the outcome of the vote, said Martin Potter, partner at Hymans Robertson.
An autonomous Scotland could follow Ireland’s example and lure new businesses in technology, science and education by lowering its corporate tax rate, audience members suggested.
“Scotland could eventually compete with Ireland on its low tax base. Edinburgh would have to work towards creating clusters of industries in the same way that Dublin has done with tech in order to do this. The question is, how to create that environment?” said Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Asset Management.
Waechter also said that Scotland’s dependency ratio of elderly people to the working population could be a risk to the property industry and economy in the event of a yes vote, as it is significantly higher than the UK’s.
sophia.furber@estatesgazette.com
