At last there’s some light amid the heat of the Scottish independence debate. And it’s clear that in the short term, independence north of the border would be of benefit to the property industry to its south.
Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds both warned this week of “material uncertainties” arising from a “yes” vote that would force them to relocate much of their businesses to England.
Clydesdale Bank has made similar noises while Standard Life has been more specific. For the pensions giant, a “yes” vote would prompt it to create new regulated companies in England from which to do business, and take steps to ensure all transactions and customers were covered by UK regulation and the London Stock Exchange.
Just how many of the 30,000 Scotland-based roles in RBS and Lloyds would be relocated south of the border is unclear. But they – and other businesses – would soon be on the hunt for more space.
Given it is the risks around credit ratings, and the new fiscal, monetary and legal landscape of an independent Scotland that is driving this contingency planning, their demand for space would focus in and around the City of London.
But if there is a short-term property boost arising from independence, the medium term appears far dicier. An independent Scotland would fire up a feisty Tory party assured of being the party of government in England for the foreseeable future. An in/out referendum would be inevitable. Brexit would be a real possibility, a probability perhaps. And would Europe and UK plc – whatever its constituent countries – really be better apart?
¦ After the roaring success of our Question Time series at home over the last few years, we are delighted to be taking an Estates Gazette event to the Middle East. With Cluttons, we are staging our first Global Real East Debate in Dubai on 21 October. Hosted by the Capital Club Dubai, our panel will discuss whether the UAE can become the business capital of the world. The answer to that could have huge resonance here. There will be full coverage in EG.
¦ The £6bn regeneration of Old Oak Common in west London is undoubtedly an exciting project. Spanning 194 acres, it would create 24,000 homes, a business district and a 40,000-seat Premier League football stadium (at least for this season; apologies QPR fans). But how best to deliver it? The GLA and Boris want to replicate the ongoing success of the mayoral development corporation that is helping secure Stratford’s post-Olympics success. And that’s not to everyone’s taste.
After all an MDC requires local authorities to cede planning power, and flies in the face of the government’s localism agenda. And it’s not like an MDC-led solution is the only way of delivering regeneration success on projects that span more than one borough. In Nine Elms, Lambeth and Wandsworth have partnered to highly productive effect.
Hammersmith & Fulham are objecting to the Old Oak MDC, arguing it could deliver the scheme in partnership with neighbouring boroughs Brent and Ealing. The latter has reservations too, though Brent is relaxed.
There are strong arguments on both sides but it may be time to establish a principle. Give the boroughs a deadline to assemble a viable plan. If they fail to meet that timetable, the mayor would be entitled to go down the MDC route.
¦ The shortlist for the MIPIM UK/Estates Gazette Awards is out. These new awards are a little different to others: they have been created to reward all the parties working to regenerate the parts of the UK that development so often fails to reach. From Glasgow to Croydon, local authorities are well represented, as well as the developers and the professionals that make these schemes happen. For the full shortlist turn to page 86. And good luck to everyone in the awards, which will be presented at MIPIM UK next month.
damian.wild@estatesgazette.com
