My family and I recently moved into a house that is within walking distance to our super-regional mall. That means that I can walk through the traffic jams to witness one of the great retail spectacles of the modern era: Black Friday.
In many households, heading to the mall is a tradition of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which begins with Thanksgiving on 27 November, followed by Black Friday on 28 November and is anchored on the other side by Cyber Monday on 1 December. As Black Friday and Cyber Monday play out, there is much to be learned about how consumers choose to spend their time and money. They may also be able to help us better understand what is happening in retail stores as they adapt to the omnichannel era.
Retailers are optimistic that holiday sales will increase over the Black Friday weekend, despite some industry warnings that this year’s consumer spending could be held back by stagnant wages and cost of living increases. While PwC projects that the average holiday spending per household will drop by 6.9% this year to $684 (£437), recent studies conducted by e-commerce firms MarketLive and ChannelAdvisor still project optimism leading into the 2014 holiday season.
Retailers are banking on this optimism and the desire of consumers to get to the mall. More retailers than ever have announced Thanksgiving Day sales and round-the-clock hours for the Black Friday weekend. If history is any indication, they are on the right track. Though 2013 saw a decline in average spending per shopper (down by 3.9% on the previous year to $407.02) and a modest 0.5% increase in shopping traffic, total spending for Black Friday weekend in 2013 still topped $57.4bn.
Retailers have long sought to jump-start the holiday shopping season with special pricing and limited-time-only deals. To maximise the public’s exposure to those deals this year, 27% of retailers plan to increase their overall digital marketing and advertising budgets and 25% are expected to launch digital marketing initiatives.
Bricks-and-mortar department stores remain the most popular shopping location for Black Friday weekend. Clothing and accessories made up 57% of Black Friday weekend sales in 2013 and are trending to continue to be the most popular purchase in 2014. Less popular are books, CDs, DVDs, video games, and video movies/boxsets.
Despite the robust numbers, early hours and tradition, Black Friday still has to contend with the growth of online retailing. An estimated 55% of consumers plan to shop online on Cyber Monday.
In anticipation of further growth this year, 90% of retailers say they will `be extending Cyber Monday by launching aggressive email promotional campaigns in advance of Black Friday to make sure they make the most of the 92m people now shopping online.
How will sales from this year’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday play out? Like the rest of the industry, we’re eager to see the results. Until then, we’ll be debating that second piece of pumpkin pie while perusing online and physical catalogues, saving our energy for the sprint to some of the best deals of the holiday season.
Matt Winn is head of retail, the Americas, Cushman & Wakefield
