On the back of a napkin, on the deck of one of the more modest yachts along the jetty, the future of the agency world was being plotted.
“Everyone is for sale right now,” said the plotter. “I mean everyone.”
MIPIM wasn’t all about merger rumours this year – the UK’s dominance of the real estate world right now trumped it, just – but the air was thick with talk of mooted alliances.
I won’t show you the napkin in case you recognise the handwriting of the industry stalwart who was making the connections – but many of the scribbled theories appeared eminently plausible.
The 3Cs led the way, of course.
CBRE’s talks to acquire Johnson Controls’ global workplace solutions business, a unit that manages 1.8bn sq ft of corporate real estate globally and turns over $4bn (£2.6bn), is much discussed in the US, less so here. If it comes off it would add sizeable power to the already formidable green machine.
Cushmans hoisted the for sale sign last week. And there was no shortage of rumoured suitors this week. In terms of private equity, TPG has the perhaps dubious honour of topping the most-talked-about league table. Is it likely given that it is already bolting together DTZ and Cassidy Turley? Perhaps not given the latter, like Cushmans, is especially strong in the US.
So instead the favourite – among MIPIM rumourmongers at least – is Brookfield. Could the world’s largest holder of property assets look to add a significant asset management business to its armoury? If the price is right it sounds plausible, doesn’t it?
And then there’s Colliers and its much talked about acquisition of GM Real Estate. It’s still not a done deal but it remains a deal that could be done. Whichever way that one goes it won’t be the only deal Colliers does this year.
These were not the only names on the napkin. And for some – including perhaps some of the names above – there is the added drama of being both a potential acquirer and acquiree.
Some of these deals will take a small number of weeks to seal. Others will take months. And most won’t come off. But here’s a prediction: Come MIPIM 2016 the agency world will have further consolidated. So much so that the brands that dominate the show could be very different indeed.
■ MIPIM 2015 saw a sea change in mood. It was by no means overexuberant but confidence was palpable and opportunities for networking and dealmaking were thoroughly embraced.
The new models on display showcased ambition. The Croisette was pounded by property types marching from meeting to meeting. The pavement outside Caffé Roma groaned under the weight of (mostly responsible) drinkers. And the Tristan Capital Partners party heaved long into the night.
For the UK the show was a real showcase of success. This year saw a near 20% rise in the number of UK delegates to around 4,800 – there were almost as many as there were from France itself.
London tightened its vice-like grip on the title “real estate capital of the world”. Meanwhile all the core cities – and smaller ones too – were in confident mood.
Most encouraging of all is that economic growth is no longer seen as a zero sum game. That feeling of only a few years ago that London’s growth was at the expense of the regions has all but evaporated.
Birmingham is no longer asking itself how it can be more like Manchester. Devolution, a strengthening national economy and the weight of available capital is refreshing parts of the property industry that earlier stages of the recovery simply hadn’t reached.
Let’s make sure a successful show is built upon.
