There are many political commentators (including some of us here at Curtin & Co) who probably need to eat a little humble pie this morning. While David Cameron was telling the world that he was fighting for a majority, we were busy dismissing the idea and writing article after article speculating about what mix of political colours would be hoisted up the Downing Street flagpole. Well, Dave was right, which, we have to admit, makes us wrong.
But, the truth is that he can probably afford about a week to celebrate before he realises how tough it is going to be. A small majority almost certainly means that the Conservatives will not have control for the whole of the next five years and will need to make friends in order to pass any remotely controversial bill.
But how does he move forward? Well, one of the most significant things that came out of his short speech after being re-elected in Witney was the use of the phrase “one nation”. If he truly does want to deliver Disraeli’s vision of one nation (in brief: a nation not divided by social inequality), accessibility to housing and bringing home ownership back into the reach of more of the population will have to be part of it – so delivering on his 200,000 homes a year pledge will have to be a priority. That is good news for the development industry.
We can also expect the “northern powerhouse” to be a continued theme too, which will open the door to development in the North. In truth, delivering on these things are not just about “one nation”, it is about smart politics. If we are allowed to start looking forward five years, the Conservatives are going to have to appeal to a wider audience if they are to stay in government.
But one nation is not every Conservative’s cup of tea. Certain members of the Conservative Party have a habit of trying to drag the party to the right once it is in government – so Dave will have to hope that the maxim of small majorities delivering loyalty proves true.
Martin Curtis is associate director at Curtin & Co
