Solum certum nihil esse certi. Pollsters could have taken heed of Pliny the Elder’s maxim (“the only certainty is uncertainty”) in the run up to the election – a vote that was characterised by uncertainty, but then defied all predictions to arrive at an unexpectedly decisive result.
With ministers already appointed and a Queen’s Speech to come on Wednesday, what can we, as an industry, be sure of as we approach – at face value – five years of majority Conservative government?
There are a few things that I feel confident enough to touch on, without doing a Paddy Ashdown and risk consuming my favourite headwear.
There will be a referendum on our membership of the European Union. This has been a hot topic for our industry, as for others. One of the UK’s main attractions to international capital is its stable political system, and uncertainty over our place in Europe has rattled the cages of the pension funds, private equity companies and asset managers. The government must provide clarity about the timing and format of the vote as soon as possible to mitigate the damage this could cause.
We will benefit from an experienced leader with Greg Clark as the new secretary of state for communities and local government. Clark has proved himself to be a sensible and effective minister in the past – taking bold steps to reform the planning system (he oversaw the introduction of the NPPF and the makeover of the Localism Act) and advocating City Deals and Growth Deals in his role as minister for cities. Most importantly, he listens. Clark is open to hearing what our industry has to offer, and how we can work in partnership with the government to achieve our mutual aims.
Devolution is on the agenda, and it will change the face of our industry considerably. At the time of going to print, Nicola Sturgeon was set to press the prime minister to go further than the Smith Commission recommendations and hand more powers to Scotland. The appointment of James Wharton as under secretary of state at CLG with responsibility for the northern powerhouse is another indication that areas aside from London are to be granted decision-making powers, and we can expect this to have further implications for Wales and Northern Ireland as well.
We know which battles we will not have to fight. We no longer need to worry about the mansion tax, a policy that sent a negative message to those looking to invest in UK residential.
Likewise, the spectre of rent controls that hovered over the nascent build-to-rent sector, threatening to derail all the traction gained over the past few years, has disappeared.
And we know that much of the work of the past five years, on business rates, planning reform and CIL, to name but three, remains unfinished.
But these will be the tip of the iceberg. The BPF will continue to be proactive in highlighting the economic and social contribution of our industry, including, of course, to the 182 new MPs entering Westminster. I have no doubt that there will be all sorts of challenges thrown our way during the next five years, and that the BPF will be more than up to tackling them. If not, I’ll eat my hat.
Melanie Leech is chief executive of the British Property Federation
