There are very welcome signs of market immunity out there: the EU referendum may be affecting volumes, but it’s not destabilising blockbuster deals or trophy sales.
Oxford Properties is selling Green Park in Reading to Singaporean investors for more than £500m. Earlier this month, Sky put its west London headquarters and studios up for sale for £545m.
This week, Hines made its global debut in the student accommodation sector by forward-funding a £150m UK portfolio. The Livingstone brothers’ London & Regional has agreed to pay Lone Star £575m for budget hotel group Atlas.
Meanwhile Blackstone has entered into exclusive talks to buy Ireland’s largest shopping destination, Blanchardstown Centre, for around €920m (£716.5m). With the Dublin market fearing Brexit contagion, getting that deal away was an important test and one that provides assurance on both sides of the Irish Sea.
It all adds up to a much-needed injection of confidence in the market. Investment volumes are down by around a third so this headline activity will reassure and keep wheels turning.
At the same time, there appears to be scant evidence of Brexit clauses in contracts which might influence price or success. Yes, there are stories of one here and a couple there, but there is no evidence that it is widespread practice.
And what of the vote itself? In a newspaper this week, Land Securities chief executive Rob Noel said: “The long-term impact of leaving the EU is unknown, but the near-term pain is all too clear to me.”
A survey by RICS could not find a single supporter of the notion that Brexit would benefit the UK property market. The view of this industry appears emphatic. But does it chime with that of the public?
• The new mayor of London will arrive at City Hall next Friday with a full in-tray. Sadiq Khan will see off Zac Goldsmith, according to the pollsters and the bookies, although we know better than to take what they say at face value.
Whichever candidate settles into the chair, the future of significant slices of London require his immediate attention: from Wimbledon greyhound stadium to Norton Folgate, there are developments the new mayor cannot dodge. In other cases, not least Bishopsgate Goodsyard, E1, he will soon find himself immersed.
The new mayor will also face a battle to convince many that he is the right man for the job. Neither candidate can proffer a CV to compare to Ken Livingstone’s. And lacking the charisma of Boris Johnson, he will have to work hard to sell London abroad, especially in places like China where Boris’s renown eclipses that of the prime minister.
And, let’s be frank, the new mayor will not inherit a legacy in whose reflected glory he can bask. There is no Olympics to attend and no park to transform.
And what mandate will he have? Turnout last time was 38%, down seven percentage points on four years earlier; this time around, campaigning has been overshadowed by the Brexit battle. It’s not unimaginable that it will fall below 30%. Assuming a close-run battle, that could see a mayor backed by just one in seven Londoners.
Of course London is not the only city facing a mayor poll: Bristol, Salford and Liverpool also have mayoral elections. And with government devolution deals requiring regional mayors, turnout matters more than ever.
• LandAid’s new focus on ending youth homelessness is gathering momentum: this week the number of industry signatories to its call to action passed 70. Endorsers include British Land and Land Securities, Savills, JLL and CBRE, M&G, Legal & General and Estates Gazette.
I can’t think of another industry that has come together so comprehensively to address a shared, measurable and meaningful goal. To join the campaign – and to see who else has signed up – go to www.landaid.org.
To send feedback, email damian.wild@estatesgazette.com or tweet @DamianWild or @estatesgazette
