Our expert Forum panel members offer their views on the likely key disruptors of 2017 (with Brexit as a given)
Alasdair Cavalla, senior economist, Centre for Economics and Business Research
“The pound will be a key source of disruption for businesses. To maintain margins while keeping prices low for hard-pressed consumers will be very tough. At the same time, financial services firms that are holding off on decisions will probably decide against investing more in London.
How should London respond to rising prices and falling demand? Business rates should be kept as low as possible to ensure jobs are not jeopardised. London must keep stressing that it remains open for talent and business from the rest of the world.”
Bill Page, business space research manager, LGIM Real Assets
“There will be positive disruptors: professional services will be boosted by Brexit-related advice, while Crossrail will move into sharper focus driving greater attention to its station hinterlands. To respond to the challenges ahead, officials need to do all they can to turn opacity to transparency.
“Businesses plan on certainty so even if the news is bad, they are better off knowing, adapting and moving forward than waiting to see what happens.”
John Dickie, director of policy and strategy, London First
“We need government to give certainty wherever it can and particularly on infrastructure investment. It’s great that Crossrail will start to run. But the trains will be full from day one so we need to commit to, and start building, Crossrail 2.
“It’s time to reverse the UK’s historic underinvestment in infrastructure and send the clear signal that London remains open for business.”
Simon Cookson, real estate partner, DLA Piper
“London’s chronic housing crisis will continue to drag on London’s productivity.
“We must ask whether the noises coming out of government, including building in the green belt, will be enough to kick-start the necessary volumes of new housing in 2017.
“Coherent policy in the Autumn Statement later this month will be the key here.”
Jennifer Brooke, executive director, business centre association
“Public policy will be one of the biggest disruptors to London businesses in 2017, unless action is taken. We are facing a cocktail of increased business rates liabilities, the impact of permitted development rights and inaction on 4G coverage and broadband speeds, which could combine to threaten the competitiveness of our economy and the growth of small- and medium-sized enterprises in London. SMEs and micro businesses make a disproportionately positive contribution to UK plc, and maintaining their ability to employ more people, retain existing talent and drive innovation is essential to the health of the economy.
“Politicians in the capital need to take action quickly to address this. The mayor should lead the way in creating a business environment that facilitates growth. If London is going to continue to be the engine that powers the UK economy, public policy needs to change from being a large negative disruptor in 2017, to a positive tool that supports business in the capital.”
Sara Turnbull, chief executive, Bootstrap Company
“Rising rents and the impact of increased business rates will be big disruptors. Providers of affordable workspace in London will have to change their business models to ensure the support given to businesses is more focused on the social impact a rent subsidy generates.
“In lieu of any policy action on affordable workspace from government or City Hall, it will be up to providers in London to respond.”
John Forrester, president, British Council for Offices
“London occupiers with short-term business needs or horizons have long searched for a more flexible solution to the long-term commitments demanded by the supply side of our industry.
“Every month now we are seeing new solutions that provide immediate and infinite flex solutions. The greater economic uncertainty that a post-Brexit world generates, the faster these options will become solidly mainstream.”
Nick Belsten, director and head of central London office, Indigo Planning
“Central government must equip London’s mayor with the right tools to make the city a place that attracts investment, while local boroughs need to act swiftly to ensure businesses are properly supported once business rates increase.
“Office to residential permitted development rights have affected the amount of affordable office stock in London and are just one example of how much of our national planning policy and legislation is poorly tailored to meet the needs of London. Flexible, devolved powers and control of London’s fiscal policy would be preferable to the one-policy-fits-all approach.”
Jonathan Steel, head of global corporate solutions, BNP Paribas Real Estate
“London’s businesses face unprecedented challenges in 2017, with political, economic and tax considerations ever more important.
“The revaluation of business rates will alter London’s economic landscape. All premises will receive a new rateable value next April. Most office occupiers can expect rateable values to increase, by up to 70% in some cases, industrial faces an average rise of 25%, and retail and leisure will be badly hit – Bond Street shops could see their bills triple.”
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