EDITOR’S COMMENT: A couple of weeks ago Savills’ head of research Mat Oakley described 2018’s prospects as “unexciting”.
After 2014’s Scottish referendum, a 2015 general election that left pollsters looking silly, 2016’s peak uncertainty (EU referendum, change of PM and the rise of Trump) and a snap election in 2017 which brought anything but strength and stability, Oakley added that unexciting “isn’t a bad thing”.
Oakley’s forecast related to central London. Beyond the capital life is a little more interesting. Key UK regional cities are reporting record levels of construction activity, with residential development surging beyond the capital, according to the latest Deloitte Real Estate Regional Crane Survey.
In Manchester, the largest market, more than 11,000 homes are under construction – a 60% rise on 2016.
But it’s not just residential. Office activity in Leeds was up by 67% to 771,313 sq ft, while Belfast saw a 24% rise to 453,000 sq ft.
It’s a broad-based story, with hotels also springing up nationally, and a testament to the importance of inward investment.
One anecdote this week speaks volumes about this resurgence in interest, confidence and delivery.
Interviewing the impressive, new-ish chief executive of the West Midlands Combined Authority, Deborah Cadman, I asked whether mayor Andy Street would be successful in his campaign to persuade Channel 4 to move to Birmingham.
“Yes,” she said with unshakeable conviction.
With infrastructure improvements coming on stream – led by HS2 but not exclusively so – a deep, young talent pool and a supportive public sector, why wouldn’t they? she asked.
Will it happen? We’ll see. There are tremendous, vested-interest, capital-centric forces at play. Equally though, I wouldn’t bet against it.
EG loves the regions
Regional resurgence will be an ongoing theme of 2018 and a continuing focus for EG.
With that in mind, Deborah Cadman and an expert panel are speaking at EG’s Birmingham Question Time on 27 February.
Meanwhile, Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, is delivering this year’s EG Peter Wilson lecture on 20 February. His theme? How significant, meaningful devolution will power UK plc.
That one takes place at Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge.
Don’t miss either; sign up at www.egi.co.uk/eg-events.
Time to take a stand
I don’t think I’ve had a conversation in the past 10 days that hasn’t touched on the Presidents Club.
What’s essential is not just that the conversation – and, in some cases I’m pleased to say, the genuine soul searching – continues, but that action follows.
Codes of conduct – where they don’t exist – will need drafting. But it’s policing adherence that will matter most.
Some individuals will need to be spoken to about past and future behaviour.
And the turning of a blind eye will need to come to an end.
Not doing this will no longer be tolerated – by regulators, by investors (where cultural attitudes are often very different in a global market) and by an increasingly distrustful public.
We have been printing reaction online and this week in the magazine. Join the conversation by e-mailing me damian.wild@egi.co.uk or tweeting @DamianWild or @estatesgazette
This won’t – and shouldn’t – blow over.
