The latest planning statistics demonstrate the difficulty of achieving the government’s housing targets.
Late September was certainly busy. We had the Labour Party Conference, the launch of a working paper on “brownfield passports”, the close of the National Planning Policy Framework consultation, and the release of two major sets of planning-related statistics.
It was also a period that lent itself to comparisons and introspection. After all it isn’t often that a conference full of speeches setting out the aspirations of a newly elected government, and policy initiatives designed to promote them, lands at the same time as two sets of data setting out just how challenging meeting those aspirations is likely to be.
Conference talking points
Planning was very high on the agenda and that agenda was tinged with a very healthy sense of realism.
According to sources, key conference takeaways included:
- A firm commitment to bringing back strategic planning as a way of making the planning-led system work more effectively, but also an acknowledgment that getting to 100% local and strategic planning coverage won’t be easy.
- Determined speeches from both the prime minister and the chancellor addressing both the need to get Britain building again and the fact that this will involve some communities having to accept development that they may not necessarily be too keen on.
- A further indication from Matthew Pennycook, minister of state for housing and planning, that the Labour administration is willing to take a much more interventionist approach, should local plans not come forward or meet their housing need.
That sense of realism is to be welcomed, as getting to 1.5m homes by the end of the parliament will not be an easy feat.
Crunching the numbers
The release of two important sets of statistics demonstrates just how much of a mountain we have to climb: first, the latest planning application statistics from MHCLG, which track the number of planning applications received and decided between April and June 2024. These reveal a continuing downward trend in the number of planning applications submitted to and granted by local planning authorities. To quote from the release: “Between April to June 2024, district level planning authorities in England:
- received 84,400 applications for planning permission, down 9% from the same quarter a year earlier;
- decided 81,800 applications for planning permission, down 6% from the same quarter a year earlier;
- granted 70,200 decisions, down 7% from the same quarter a year earlier.”
This is a problem, as it means the pipeline of new permissions currently in the system is falling, just at the time when the government needs a sharp acceleration in housing (and indeed commercial and infrastructure) delivery.
The housing supply statistics were released a few days later. These painted a slightly more nuanced picture, with very volatile changes in housing starts, but completions proving somewhat steadier.
That said, however, the overall trends shown in the data are stark. To quote from the release again; “… trends in starts and completions were similar up to 2008. During the economic downturn of 2008, both starts and completions fell. From 2009, starts began to recover and during the next three years both series converged and levelled out. From 2013 to 2018, both starts and completions gradually grew again. Starts and completions both reached their lowest level in the June quarter 2020, reflecting the restrictions introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic. Following a sharp uptick in the September quarter 2020, starts have been more volatile, peaking in the June quarter 2023 and then falling sharply in the second half of 2023 (partly due to changes in building regulations…). Completions were broadly stable between the September quarter 2020 and the December quarter 2022, and have decreased since.”
Again, the steep fall in starts on site is not good news for the government’s 1.5m homes target, as it indicates that the supply of new build homes is likely to contract further before it begins to increase.
Turning the tanker
In terms of the interventions planned to address this:
- the NPPF consultation closed on 24 September. While the proposed revisions could start to make a real difference – particularly if the changes to the standard method are retained – we are going to have to wait for them. Latest indications are that the response is likely to be published either very late this year, or early next;
- the Planning and Infrastructure Bill and the English Devolution Bill are not expected to be published before the new year; and
- “brownfield passports” are clearly at a very early stage of development.
That leaves the upcoming Budget as the last real hope for any more immediate changes. Early indications are that the Budget may contain help for housing associations and local planning authorities – and possibly an investment zone or two – but it is unlikely that there will be many development-related rabbits emerging from the chancellor’s hat.
In short, delivering on the government’s ambitions for planning and development is unlikely to be quick or easy. There is a lot of work to do and a five-year parliamentary term can disappear remarkably quickly. Now that conference is over, it really is time for the rubber to meet the road.
Nicola Gooch is a planning partner at Irwin Mitchell
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