EDITOR’S COMMENT: Whatever the result of today’s election, the political environment is decisively changed. The electorate’s expectations are different. Policy priorities have shifted. And those changes will have important consequences for this sector.
Remember when it was all about the economy, stupid. That phrase may have been coined by James Carville, the man behind Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 unseating of president Bush snr. But the philosophy could be applied equally to the UK up to and including the last election.
In 2015 – and doesn’t that seem a lifetime ago – the economy, stupid, weighed heavily on voters’ minds. Going into the final weeks of the campaign, it was the only issue to be a headline concern for more than 50% of those polled by YouGov.
Going into this week it is altogether different.
Six in 10 Britons consider the NHS to be one of the biggest issues facing the UK, says Ipsos MORI. Education matters for one in four, the same number that worry about immigration. Only one in five put the economy up there. And yes, Brexit – not a dominant factor even two years ago in those (halcyon for some) pre-referendum days – looms large. It remains the single most important issue among those polled.
Sadly, but unsurprisingly, security has been a fast-rising worry this time around, too. In other research by Ipsos MORI, terrorism and the rise of extremism figure prominently as headline concerns.
The scales appear to have tipped, away from personal financial matters. They are unlikely to tip back quickly. Even though the economy dominated last time around, health ran it close. And housing was emerging as a major factor among voters. Particularly among 18- to 24-year-olds, according to YouGov. And especially in London. That will have intensified since – and extended to other age and geographic groups.
So, how will this affect real estate?
The heightened risk of a terrorist act where accessible, workaday items can be a weapon – a van, a knife – has rendered security much more than a week-to-week landlord consideration (or even an hour-to-hour one, as was the case when the UK Threat Level moved from critical to severe in the wake of Manchester Arena bombing).
It will become an ever-more fundamental consideration in planning and perhaps especially in placemaking. Yes, it’s important we keep calm and carry on. But it’s vital we do so with vigilance. Could the next round of workplace legislation mandate building evacuation policies or even protection similar to that installed on London’s principal bridges in the wake of the weekend’s tragedy?
Meanwhile, the rise to the fore of housing, healthcare and education will need to be acknowledged in the next government’s legislative programme. Yes, that creates opportunities for this sector. But anyone deemed to be profiting excessively from providing what is considered a public service will be judged harshly. Those that partner with the public sector and share the upside will be welcomed – by Westminster, Whitehall and town halls up and down the country.
And then there is the question of how all this is paid for. The removal of unpopular taxes is all but impossible in this environment. So don’t expect an undoing of stamp duty land tax reforms any time soon. Indeed higher taxation is likely and this sector, seen as a soft target by many and fair game by some, will be in the sights of whoever forms the next government.
Carville’s prioritising of “the economy, stupid” is what his 1992 is campaign is best remembered for. But it was only one of the three messages on which he focused. “Don’t forget health care” was one, to which we could add “don’t forget education and housing either”.
“Change vs more of the same” was his third. It was the promise of change what won it 25 years ago. And it is a change agenda that will dominate the next five years.
