All to play for in the Arc

A years-long initiative to map out a fresh vision for the Oxford-Cambridge Arc is now officially underway with the launch of a public consultation on the future of the area. Whatever the outcome of the spatial framework ultimately formed from this and other consultations, no one expects capitalising on the myriad economic opportunities across the counties to be easy. But Patrick McMahon, senior partner at consultancy Bidwells, knows there is everything to play for. “We’re playing for the UK’s place in the global economy,” said McMahon during a panel discussion for EG’s Vision for the Arc event. “The Arc is an enormous success at the minute, with an output of about £115bn into the UK economy, and there is the potential to quadruple that output to almost £400bn. It is seen as a leading light right around the world in terms of science and technology, and that’s what we have got to cherish and nurture and develop.” Real estate will play a huge part in that development – something McMahon and colleagues are more than aware of as they set up a new team to advise clients on mixed-use developments in the region.  The government’s goal of ensuring the Arc remains a place of choice to work and live will call for a redoubled drive from the industry and local authorities. “As far as the work part is concerned, in order to allow for all of this economic development to come forward, we are going to need to create a lot of real estate to match it,” McMahon said. “Our research shows that we are going to need around 20m sq ft of new labs and offices right across the Arc. So it is large-scale development. This is a big change in a very special part of the world, and it has to be done well – really well.” At the crease For David Marks, managing partner at real estate investor Brockton Everlast, the opportunities to put money to work in the Arc are clear, and the region remains “an incredibly interesting part of the UK to invest in”. But deals are concentrated in the biggest cities, he added – and that means that some developers are playing it safe until they see more concrete development that involves “swinging hammers, laying cables, laying train lines with committed capital” and more. “There is a cricket analogy to how private sector capital is looking at the Arc,” Marks said. “If private sector was at the crease, from what I can see, the majority of the capital – and certainly Brockton Everlast – is very happy going for one run, two runs. What I mean by that is we are investing in Cambridge, investing in Oxford. “But right now we are not investing across the other part of the Arc. We’re not in Milton Keynes, we’re not in Bedfordshire. We’re not going for sixes. We’re not optioning 300 acres of greenbelt land thinking that the moonshot is going to happen and that government planning policy, transport infrastructure and digital connectivity is all going to align at some point over the next four to eight years.” Alignment is a concern for others too. As the Arc’s ambitions grow, the more than 20 local authorities across the area will need to be on the same page despite their existing local plans, noted Iain Gilbey, partner and head of residential at law firm Pinsent Masons. That is no easy feat over the medium and long term, he added, particularly given the ongoing issues that under-resourced planning departments face in the short term. “That is a challenge for local authorities because they are having to be cognisant of that [upcoming Arc] framework, which is coming,” Gilbey said. “But they have also got to tackle the very local issues of employment land, housing land, social and physical infrastructure now.” The government’s role as the consultations and spatial framework continue will be to encourage an Arc-wide approach that spans the different councils. “There is a tension at the heart of this ambition, which is a localism versus regionalism agenda,” Gilbey said. “Unless government is brave and bold, and takes some quite big steps in terms of moving this to a more regional approach, there is a danger that we will end up with piecemeal development, both economic employment development and housing development. “And if we end up with piecemeal development, bearing in mind that there are 26 or 27 local authorities involved in the geography of the region, we will end up with a sum that is less than its parts.” Our research shows that we are going to need around 20m sq ft of new labs and offices right across the Arc. So it is large-scale development Patrick McMahon, Bidwells Turning to TikTok The challenges are not insurmountable, and any big regeneration project will pose some problems to be overcome, said Liz Peace, chair of the Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation and former chief executive of the British Property Federation. “They are never as straightforward as you think they are going to be,” Peace said of such projects. “Large-scale regeneration is hugely complicated. Things intervene to stop it, to thwart the best government ambitions. I absolutely love this idea of joining up Oxford, Cambridge and everything in between – nine academic institutions that could be the basis of this. But the problem is that the search for the big-picture solution takes quite a long time… In the meantime, the world doesn’t stand still.” The consultation is a big step in trying to ensure that local communities across the Arc are on board for the journey – regardless of how long it takes. And with a focus on using digital channels to reach people who otherwise might not take part in or even know of such consultations, the hope is to bring a genuine diversity of voices into the conversation. As Peace said: “Who is going to give up their Tuesday or Wednesday evening to go to a debate in the local town hall about a spatial strategy that is 15, 20, 30 years ahead of where they are now?” The digital push could solve that problem, and Bidwells’ McMahon is perhaps only half speaking in jest when he talks about using TikTok to reach a younger generation of Arc residents. “I’m fascinated to see how this digital consultation works,” he added. “Let’s talk to the young people. Let’s talk to business. Let’s talk to the wider community… The whole brand of the Arc is going to need a lot of work for us to engage with young people and business. But if we can do that, if we can get them more engaged, the product of that is going to give a local politician more comfort about the decisions that they are taking and hopefully better planning decisions.” That really does mean everything is to play for – regardless of which sporting metaphor you use. Expert speakers Iain Gilbey, partner and head of residential, Pinsent Masons David Marks, managing partner, Brockton Everlast Patrick McMahon, senior partner, Bidwells Liz Peace, chair, Old Oak and Park Royal Development Corporation and former chief executive of the British Property Federation Click here to watch all the coverage from EG’s Vision for the Arc event To send feedback, e-mail tim.burke@eg.co.uk or tweet @_tim_burke or @EGPropertyNews Read more How a digital drive could reshape the OxCam Arc An ‘unrivalled’ regional opportunity for real estate COMMENT Moving the OxCam Arc plans from vision to reality COMMENT A one-off regional opportunity for real estate Photo © Ben Seymour Unsplash