Now in its 26th year, the British Council of Shopping Centres’ annual conference is at London’s Olympia from 10-11 September. Noella Pio Kivlehan takes a look at what’s coming up, as well as a look back at the BCSC’s history. Plus, EG quizzes some of the conference’s participants on expectations for retail in 2015, the hottest market of 2014, and the Scottish referendum
Tony Devlin, head of high street retail, CBRE
What are your expectations for next year? There will be continued gradual improvement in consumer confidence tempered by two things – the forthcoming election and threat of interest rate rises. While retailers continue to face downward margin pressure, mainly as a result of strong competition (and therefore price decreases), they are seeing sales improvements both in store and online.
We are definitely through the worst of it in terms of retailer failures and while there will inevitably be some administrations, we will not see any of the larger scale failures that we have seen over the last four or five years.
The sector that will see the greatest benefit will be homewares. As house price increases price many out of the market and salary increases haven’t kept pace, those who may have intended to move will be looking to make the most of where they are and carry out home improvements, with the resulting purchases.
John Menzies, partner, retail services, Cushman & Wakefield, Scotland
Which retail sector will be the shining star for 2015? The restaurant market has been the hottest of all in 2014, and I see this continuing in 2015. Restaurant rents in Glasgow have risen by 30% over the past 18 months and now sit at about £40 per sq ft. I could see these moving to £50 per sq ft in 2015 and possibly higher than that in Edinburgh, where there is a real lack of supply and competition for the best sites.
What effect is the referendum in Scotland (on 18 September) having on the market?
To date there has been little meaningful change in the level of retailer demand in the run-up to the referendum. If there was a yes vote, I would expect some retailers to slow their pace of acquisition until such time as the negotiations with Westminster take shape. Thereafter, it really depends on your view as to whether Scotland would be wealthier if independent.
Martin Breeden, regional director, Intu
What are your expectations for the market for the rest of the year and 2015? The Bank of England has held interest rates at a record low again. This is good news for consumers and will encourage retailers to continue with expansion plans and to sign more lease deals. I see steady progress for the remainder of 2014 and going into 2015 as the economy improves and customers feel more confident about their spending.
How are the regions doing? Well, but retailers need the best locations to thrive. Customers will travel further, stay for longer and return more often to successful, prime locations.
Damian Sumner, director in retail, JLL
What are your expectations for the market for the rest of the year, and 2015? It feels that we have entered a period of greater certainty, seen fewer tenant failures over the past 12 months and the JLL retail team has certainly seen a greater amount of enquiries.
Luxury continues to perform well, while most discounters are experiencing strong sales growth. There is retail polarisation in the grocery market, with the likes of Aldi and Lidl taking share and the traditional big operators getting crunched on margins.
There will be continued growth of the leisure/F&B market, with new concepts continuing to emerge.
How important will technology be to the market over the next couple of years? We can see that consumers clearly love technology – particularly their mobiles. Mobile phone internet usage is projected to overtake desktop internet usage this year. Consumers who use their mobile phones in shop buy more than those who don’t use their phone.
At the moment, tablets and smartphones are at the forefront of internet access and these are shaping the development of retail stores. It seems that the third wave will involve the “internet of stuff” or eyewear, with Google Glass being a prime example of this, or contact lenses that are also being developed to assist us in how we shop. Technology will play a significant role in the future of store design.
BCSC history
The BCSC was formed in 1983 by a group of retail property professionals, comprising Ian Northern (Capital & Counties), Harold Couch (Hillier Parker), Peter Spriddell (Marks & Spencer), Leonard Jarrad (Hillier Parker), Roger Lucas and Julian Markham, who had seen the value of the ICSC model that had been running since the 1950s.
It was created with the ambition of bringing together “around 100” like-minded people to produce research and organise study tours.
A conference was introduced in 1987; the first two were held in Bournemouth before the group went on to Harrogate, Newcastle Gateshead, Belfast, Cardiff, Birmingham, Dublin and Glasgow, as well as Manchester and Liverpool more recently, and London in 2013.
Chief executive Michael Green was appointed in 2003 and the BCSC has continued to develop the conference and exhibition, adding more awards and events, education programmes, research production, government relations and networking.
2013’s conference and exhibition in London was the most successful event to date, with 3,000 delegates in attendance and more retailers than at any other UK B2B event.
For more details on the show go to: www.bcsc.org.uk/2014
New at this year’s show
The BCSC has introduced a new Innovation Hub for 2014.
In a joint venture with Appear Here, the online marketplace for short-term retail space, the hub will provide an additional debate and discussion forum with a focus on challenging the norm.
The hub will run alongside BCSC’s usual speaker programme with seminars, drop-in panel sessions and interactive workshops, and will be hosted in an open lounge and gallery.
Topics for discussion will range from “Transforming retail space into media space” to “How to take advantage of pop-up culture” and “The changing relationship between retailers and consumers”.
