Briefing: London’s industrial time bomb

The insatiable demand for online retail coupled with London’s growing population – predicted to exceed 10m by 2031 – means industrial land needs to be protected. A new report from industrial REIT SEGRO and planner Turley, Keep London Moving, shows how it is crucial to halt the loss of the capital’s industrial land to other uses. Change of use to residential, together with the growth of e-commerce, is driving the demand for industrial land even further. SEGRO chief executive David Sleath says: “There needs to be a thorough review of industrial land designation, which recognises the requirements of urban logistics operators to be located where they are able to respond to last-mile activities. We need to ensure the industrial and logistics sector has a voice within London policy decision-making to ensure that the rapid loss of industrial land is reversed and intensification of industrial and logistics uses is possible when practical.” Read more from David Sleath >> Industrial land supply by sub-region 2001-2015 The supply of industrial land has been contracting since 2001, affecting every sub-region of London. Absolute change in industrial land supply 2010-2015 The London Plan includes provision for the managed release of 37ha of surplus industrial land annually from 2011 to 2031 across the capital. The Greater London Authority has identified the greatest opportunity for release in east London and parts of inner west London, with more limited scope in north and outer west London. Historic absolute change in industrial land supply by sub-region 2001–2015 (ha) 2001-06 2006-10 2010-15 2001-15 Central -32 -26 -111 -169 East -129 -258 -172 -721 North -12 -3 -48 -63 South -55 -5 -74 -134 West -51 -45 -124 -220 London -440 -337 -528 -1,305 London industrial land loss 2031 target and pipeline (ha) Industrial land Industrial land loss from 2010 Equivalent number of Park Royals lost 2010 7,505 n/a n/a 2031 target 6,700 805 1 Pipeline loss (20 years) 6,147 1,358 2 All eight boroughs in the Park Royal/A40/Heathrow area are likely to exceed their targeted release by 2031. Five are already at the target release level. Historic absolute change in industrial land supply by sub-region 2001–2015 Total industrial land supply 2020 (ha) Total targeted loss in industrial land 2011 – 2031 Targeted annual loss of industrial land 2011 – 2031 (ha) Annual actual loss of industrial land 2010 – 2015 (ha) Annual potential pipeline loss of industrial land (ha) 20 years Barking and Dagenham 475 -7% -2 1 6 Barnet 115 -9% -1 -3 0 Bexley 528 -9% -2 -1 2 Brent 411 -6% -1 -2 2 Bromley 136 -7% 0 -1 0 Camden 61 -8% 0 -4 0 City of London 5 0% 0 0 0 Croydon 180 -5% 0 -4 0 Ealing 534 -4% -1 -4 3 Enfield 486 -7% -2 -5 3 Greenwich 240 -21% -3 -1 3 Hackney 74 -14% -1 -4 0 Hammersmith and Fulham 172 -23% -2 -7 3 Haringey 167 -14% -1 -2 2 Harrow 71 -20% -1 -1 1 Havering 510 -7% -2 -13 1 Hillingdon 430 -6% -1 -7 3 Hounslow 496 -3% -1 -3 1 Islington 70 -7% 0 -5 0 Kensington and Chelsea 28 -7% 0 -2 0 Kingston upon Thames 116 -6% 0 0 0 Lambeth 96 -8% 0 -4 1 Lewisham 135 -25% -2 -6 1 Merton 177 -5% 0 -2 0 Newham 563 -19% -5 -3 3 Redbridge 72 -15% -1 -1 0 Richmond upon Thames 48 -8% 0 -2 0 Southwark 170 -15% -1 -5 0 Sutton 334 -3% 0 0 1 Tower Hamlets 180 -19% -2 -4 3 Waltham Forest 214 -13% -1 -3 1 Wandsworth 179 -23% -2 -6 2 Westminster 19 -5% 0 -2 0   Projected population growth in London   Employment growth 2011-31 % employment growth 2011-31 Projected population growth 2011-31 Population growth 2011-31 Barking and Dagenham -1,000 -2% 71,920 38% Barnet 32,000 23% 100,767 28% Bexley 11,000 15% 39,076 17% Brent 27,000 24% 58,536 19% Bromley 23,000 20% 63,943 21% Camden 77,000 24% 56,112 25% City of London 93,000 22% 3,479 47% Croydon -19,000 -14% 74,513 20% Ealing 16,000 11% 57,656 17% Enfield 21,000 20% 75,066 24% Greenwich 16,000 20% 59,286 23% Hackney 34,000 31% 65,611 27% Hammersmith and Fulham 42,000 30% 16,170 9% Haringey 14,000 19% 58,199 23% Harrow 16,000 22% 51,013 21% Havering 14,000 18% 52,747 22% Hillingdon 58,000 29% 77,815 28% Hounslow 46,000 32% 70,099 27% Islington 86,000 44% 60,154 29% Kensington and Chelsea 32,000 24% 3,897 2% Kingston upon Thames 7,000 9% 36,426 23% Lambeth 48,000 33% 61,247 20% Lewisham 16,000 22% 64,752 23% Merton 29,000 35% 38,767 19% Newham 45,000 52% 92,375 30% Redbridge 22,000 30% 83,718 30% Richmond upon Thames 14,000 15% 39,368 21% Southwark 113,000 48% 63,678 22% Sutton 5,000 7% 48,084 25% Tower Hamlets 185,000 75% 103,223 40% Waltham Forest 24,000 34% 66,065 25% Wandsworth 31,000 26% 47,780 15% Westminster 150,000 23% 59,216 27% • To send feedback, e-mail amber.rolt@estatesgazette.com or tweet @amberrolt or @estatesgazette