It’s just over five years until Tokyo becomes the first Asian city to host a second Olympic Games. The preparations, and arguments, are well advanced.
On Monday, police held a terrorism drill. Last week, Tokyo’s Shibuya district said it might resume its practice of closing two main streets to cars at weekends to inject vibrancy into the area ahead of the 32nd summer Games. And talks are ongoing about whether sumo, baseball and wushu – a Chinese martial art – should feature in the Games.
But, for this industry, it is the buildings and their physical legacy that matter most. And with the success of the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, London has set the bar high.
No one involved in London 2012 will be surprised to hear that in Tokyo rows over cost, timescale and size are ramping up. Much of the controversy centres on Zaha Hadid’s 80,000-seat National Olympic Stadium. Already the height has been reduced, the budget cut and the design lambasted by local architects. “Like a turtle waiting for Japan to sink so it can swim away” was one of the more choice descriptions of a design inspired by a cycle helmet. The stadium will be the centrepiece of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, so a late dash to the finish is not an option.
At MIPIM Japan last month, Tokyo governor Yoichi Masuzoe said he had travelled to London last year to see the impact of the London Games. He spoke to a 2,500-strong audience of the physical legacy he hoped the Tokyo Games would deliver: infrastructure improvements, a regeneration of the bay area and a city “free of barriers”.
“London became the number-one city to come to after the 2012 Games, because the work of the city didn’t stop with the end of the Games,” he said. “This is the kind of development I would like to see in Tokyo.”
There are encouraging signs that a market that has endured distress for two decades may be recovering. This week, JLL’s Asia boss Alistair Hughes talked up the Tokyo office market. “You can borrow money cheaply and buy assets that produce more income than the cost of borrowing,” he told Bloomberg.
But Hughes’ endorsement came with a warning: “Medium-term there are lots of question marks about the demographics of Japan, but in the short term it looks a pretty good bet.”
Nevertheless, recovery in Tokyo still feels more like a marathon than a sprint.
