Behind the scenes at least, Grosvenor’s £240m, 1.5m sq ft Tithebarn scheme in Preston is moving forward. Negotiations with potential funders and anchor tenants are continuing, and local agents hope that once these deals are finalised there will be more visible progress.
However, in the four or five years it has taken Tithebarn to get to this stage, the market has changed. Faced with the challenge of an extra 700,000 sq ft of retail arriving in the city, many neighbouring centres have reassessed their own offers.
So when Tithebarn does eventually arrive on the scene, which towns will be most prepared for the competition? And will the lengthy development programme have lessened Tithebarn’s overall impact?
Two of the closest towns to Preston are Blackburn and Blackpool, both of which have plans for improved retail (see panel). Paul Nicholls, partner at Cushman & Wakefield, says: “Blackburn better get on with its plans or it will be crippled.”
But not all agree. Ken Gunn, head of property consultancy at information provider CACI, points out that Blackburn’s catchment is dominated by blue-collar workers, who tend to remain loyal to local shops. “Wealthier shoppers tend to be more promiscuous in their choice of where to shop,” he says.
Seaside town
For Blackpool, opinion is also divided. Nicholls believes people visit the seaside town for reasons other than shopping. But Alan Black, partner at Donaldsons, says: “Improvements in Blackpool will help, but it will have a problem again when Tithebarn opens.”
Lancaster also has cause for concern. Black explains: “Lancaster is an underperforming town, there aren’t the big units. The Castle View scheme will address that. But if Tithebarn gets John Lewis, it will struggle again.”
David Lewis, associate director at Centros Miller, which is preferred developer for Castle View, claims: “Lancaster has got a large and loyal catchment. If it provides retail choice, it will help mitigate the threat from the competition.”
Securing John Lewis at Tithebarn will play an important role in Preston’s draw for shoppers, but the deal is not yet signed. The department store is rumoured to have looked at Preston four years ago but walked away.
Gunn points to all the additional retail schemes planned in the region. “Everywhere you look there is an extension or new centre, and it undermines Tithebarn in terms of its potential,” he says.
Indeed, CACI is now predicting a 16% rise in expenditure in Preston — a significant climb, but not as high as the 50% rise it predicted four years ago.
Lancashire’s towns are addressing the potential threat of Tithebarn, but the extent to which it will hit them will become clearer only when the scheme’s tenant line-up is announced.
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Preston commands the highest rents |
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Preston Grosvenor’s Tithebarn regeneration project totals 1.5m sq ft and includes 700,000 sq ft of retail. The developer signed an agreement for the £240m scheme with Preston council last autumn. It is now in negotiations with potential funders and an anchor store, thought to be John Lewis, as well as working up a planning application. The market expectation is that once negotiations are concluded, consent could be sought as early as this summer. Information provider CACI predicts that the scheme will yield a 16% increase in consumer expenditure when it opens. Blackburn Planning has been approved for The Mall, owner of The Mall Blackburn, to go ahead with a 104,000 sq ft extension to the centre. Subject to a section 106 agreement, the scheme could be completed as early as 2008. Penrith Lowther Manelli has submitted a planning application to Eden district council for a mixed-use scheme that includes 140,000 sq ft of retail space. A 40,000 sq ft store has been prelet to a food retailer. Burnley Henry Boot has submitted an application for a 250,000 sq ft scheme, to be called The Oval. Subject to consent and site assembly, start on site is expected in 2008 with final completion in 2010. “Burnley has suffered retail leakage in the past. And it doesn’t have a decent-sized Next or an H&M. We are hoping to attract new stores, including a department anchor store, and hopefully stop the leakage,” says Matthew Illingworth, a partner at letting agent Donaldsons. Lancaster The masterplan consultation for Centros Miller’s 500,000 sq ft mixed-use Castle View scheme closes this month. Centros Miller is preferred developer for the development, which will see the creation of 350,000 sq ft of retail space. Workington The first phase of the Washington Square shopping centre has opened, and completion of the entire 276,000 sq ft scheme, including its 75,000 sq ft Debenhams, is due in October. “It is a real boost for Workington, which has lived in the shadows of Carlisle,” says Donaldsons’ Illingworth. Blackpool New owner of the Hounds Hill shopping centre, Modus, is pressing ahead with plans to extend the development. A planning application has been submitted for the second phase of 50,000 sq ft and a hotel. A further phase could increase the centre size again by 150,000-200,000 sq ft. |
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