COMMENT In the week since Estates Gazette asked me to write this piece, I’ve re-written this introduction three times. The volatile nature of global politics is forcing a slow-moving, risk-averse sector like higher education, and by proxy PBSA, to adapt in real time.
For more than a decade, Chinese students have been the golden ticket for UK universities and PBSA operators: high spenders; consistent growth; and strong academic performers. But that dependence has become a vulnerability. As global policies, economics, and competition shift, the UK’s Chinese student pipeline is no longer the reliable engine it once was.
Volatility is the new normal
UCAS’s October applicant data showed an 8.9% rise in Chinese undergraduate applications for 2025, following an 8% total decline between 2022 and 2024. But this reflects only early-deadline applicants, mostly for Oxbridge and medicine, and UCAS only handles 60% of international undergrad applications. The full picture may yet shift, hopefully positively.
Postgraduate numbers are more concerning. Visa data for the 12 months ending March 2025 shows 102,726 study visas issued to Chinese main applicants, down slightly year on year. That plateau reflects broader structural shifts in the UK, exacerbated by restrictions on dependents and hostile rhetoric from the previous Conservative government.
Many hoped the Labour Party under Keir Starmer would mark a fresh start, but we remain disappointed by a government that appears to be scrambling to appease Reform voters at the expense of the £42bn-a-year international student sector.
The most recent policy white paper recommends taxing international students’ earnings and reducing the graduate route – the amount of time international students can stay in the UK post-graduation – from two years to 18 months. The response to this seems muted at present on Chinese social media, but international agents are concerned that this policy may signal a long-term shift to a more hostile approach to international student applications in the UK.
Across the Atlantic, Trump’s return is once again chilling sentiment. His first term saw a 12% drop in international students from 2017 to 2019. The “Trump effect” is back. With renewed talk of revoking visas and blocking Chinese applicants in “sensitive” subjects, US universities are bracing for another exodus. Chinese enrolments have already dropped from 370,000 in 2019 to around 277,000 in 2024.
According to Studyportals, interest in US universities dropped 50% between January and April 2025. This flip-flopping, where visas are revoked one day and welcomed the next, is deeply damaging to US higher education. Under Trump, the US government appears to be erratic and petulant with no long-term strategy for any policies let alone international education. While the UK, Canada and Australia are hardly rolling out the red carpet to Chinese students, they are leaving the door slightly ajar at least.
Canada has introduced a 10% cut to international study permits. Australia has imposed state-level caps. Both are cooling demand. And although 22% of international students in Australia are from China, uncertainty is causing families to look elsewhere.
The rise of Asia
Meanwhile, Chinese universities are rising rapidly in global rankings. Tsinghua and Peking are now in the top 10. Many more are catching up. Why pay to study abroad when the best is now at home? From visa crackdowns to anti-immigration rhetoric, the message being sent by countries like the US, UK, and Australia is not one of openness. Asia, by contrast, offers academic prestige, geographic proximity and an environment where Chinese students feel more secure, both politically and personally.
Chinese students are also heavily influenced by rankings. If a university slips out of the global top 100, applications can collapse. Several UK institutions have seen exactly that. Falling rankings lead to falling revenue and a vicious cycle of decline. The message from China is clear: only the best will do.
The UK cannot assume Chinese students will keep coming in the same numbers or spending at the same levels. Preferences are shifting, Asia is rising. Affordability and value matter more than ever. This is not a dip. It is a structural realignment.
One country’s loss is another’s gain. And if the UK fails to adapt, it will not just be a zero-sum game. It will be a losing one.
Dan Smith, director, RESI Consultancy
