The 2015 general election was remarkable. Having been a drawn-out contest without much appearing to happen, it produced a huge surprise on 7 May when the exit poll suggested Britain had voted for a Conservative government.
David Cameron runs the first majority Conservative government for 18 years and the party’s manifesto is our guide to a five-year programme of government. It includes reducing the public deficit to zero by 2019, a “right to buy” policy for housing associations, 200,000 starter homes, development of the northern powerhouse and superfast broadband for rural areas.
Important policies which a Labour or Lab-Lib government might have pursued, such as new towns, are unlikely to gain traction from the Conservatives. Nor will proposals such as mansion tax or rent controls be enacted. Labour and the Lib Dems face bleak years in opposition attempting to construct platforms for the future.
Reducing the deficit to zero while protecting or increasing spending on the NHS, international development, pensions and schools will mean local government expenditure will have to fall sharply. There will be fewer planners, less economic development and less frequent street cleaning. Developers will come under greater pressure to provide funding through CIL or section 106 contributions. More developments will have to pay for their own maintenance and there will be more “privatised” public space.
The “right to buy” for housing association homes will alter the business model of such institutions and the policy, if delivered, will require local authorities to sell off high-value council homes to provide money to compensate the losses faced by the associations. Unless there is an authority-by-authority determination of what “high value” means, council housing in inner London would have to be sold. The government forcing the owners of private property to sell their assets is a fascinating precedent.
Cheap starter homes will require government resources, or the removal of requirements in relation to planning, tax exemption and the improvement of ex-industrial land. There will not be many resources available to subsidise new houses. Planning relaxation and the removal of CIL-type demands seem more likely.
The northern powerhouse policy has economic and political implications. The deal between the chancellor and Greater Manchester opened the way for a modest extension of an “earn back” model that could allow for the retention of a larger share of local property taxes than hitherto. What no one knows is how radical the government will be. It is possible that control of the NHS will, to some extent, be transferred to the GM authorities. Leeds, Liverpool and Sheffield are likely to follow if they are prepared to adopt a directly elected mayor.
The transfer of powers to city regions is a partial answer to the demand for an English response to the transfer of tax-raising powers to Scotland and Wales. The future of the UK’s constitutional arrangements is very much in flux.
The Conservatives can now be more radical. The right-to-buy, housing and northern powerhouse policies could lead to substantive change. Elections really can make a difference.
Tony Travers is director of LSE London
