Happy autumn. It’s looking ferociously busy. To help guide you, here’s a quick list of nine things to watch out for over the coming months plus a supremely significant summer development you almost certainly missed.
1) Your colleagues will get younger. Among the five biggest agents, more than 30% of the workforce is under 30 (p102). At Colliers the average age is 29. That doesn’t mean you have to stop wearing a tie (necessarily), but don’t think that the old ways of doing business will go unaltered.
2) Scotland’s independence referendum. Just think about what it could mean. Gulp.
3) Political turmoil. Once the result of the Scottish referendum is known, the clock will begin counting down to the general election. More dangerously and depressingly, Russia, Ukraine and much of the Middle East are, to western eyes, careering out of control. There are many more desperately sad frightening consequences, of course, but the impact on property will grow. Activity from Russian buyers in the UK has already all but disappeared. A global tour seeking brands, business and restaurants for Battersea Power Station is set to take in 13 cities in 11 countries. Moscow is not on the list and won’t feature on many investor roadshows for some time.
4) Still on the public sector: land sell-offs. This week London mayor Boris Johnson officially launched the Met’s New Scotland Yard HQ to the market, while the Ministry of Defence appointed Urban & Civic to promote a 6,500 home, PRS-led resi development on the site of the former RAF barracks at Waterbeach near Cambridge (p44). There appears to be an injection of pace into the programme – finally. Will it last?
5) New chief executives. An announcement on who will lead the British Property Federation is close. Also of significance is who will head LandAid. The charity has moved to the centre of the industry’s consciousness in the past few years. It is vital (both for the significant sums it raises for important causes and for the industry’s philanthropic reputation) that the next chief executive keeps up the momentum.
6) Disruptors. I have written on Eastdil here before, but could easyProperty prove, as it bills itself, the “ultimate disruptor” in this industry? Yes it’s that “easy”, the latest venture from Stelios (p68). And yes it will launch into the resi space. But it wants to be a leading player in the commercial world, here and abroad, within two years. Yes, two years.
7) Regional rental recovery and spec development. In Bristol, PwC is set to pay the highest office rent in almost a decade (p46). It vindicates the decision by Salmon Harvester and NFU Mutual to speculatively develop 2 Glass Wharf at Temple Meads. And it may help persuade other developers in other cities to spec.
8) Further consolidation. Cheque books are open and discussions are active. But who will actually close a deal?
9) The trading of distressed property debt will not slow. The world’s top three private debt investors have raised $73bn (£44bn), and more than half is targeting property (p6). With £465bn of debt held by European banks and asset managers yet to be worked through, according to Cushman & Wakefield, there’s no shortage of likely homes.
And the one you will have missed.
10) Barely reported a fortnight ago was the news that Glasgow had joined what, by membership at least, had always been the English Core Cities group. “This is a highly significant moment,” said Glasgow council leader Gordon Matheson, lest we be in any doubt. “Glasgow has more in common with cities like Liverpool and Manchester than we do with many parts of Scotland.” It was a provocative announcement made tantalisingly close to the referendum. We’ll argue about its significance after the result is known.
A busy run-in to the end of the year. Bumpy too. Fun, though.
Damian.Wild@estatesgazette.com
