Gung hay fat choy! This week ushered in a new Chinese year, the year of the ram, sheep or goat, depending on your preference, and with it a ben ming nian (unlucky time) for those born under the sign.
But the ram, known for its austerity, is also said to bring promise and prosperity. So which will it be?
The propensity for fortune will not be very good for those born in the year of the ram/sheep/goat and they will “become easily involved in financial difficulties”, reads my online fortune-teller. Hmmm. Adopt a conservative strategy when dealing with investments and focus on increasing income and decreasing expenditure, I’m told.
That fortune could ring true for China. The country is in the midst of a slowdown after all. But in terms of real estate investment, the numbers just keep getting bigger. A lot bigger.
From humble beginnings – investing £93m in London real estate in 2010 – transactions in the capital by the Chinese this year will top £4.5bn, according to CBRE. That is double the 2014 figure.
Not exactly a “conservative strategy”, but then is anything that China does in terms of growth conservative?
China is one of the greatest urbanisation stories ever told. Its population is booming and becoming increasingly middle class. Within the next decade it will have 220 cities with more than one million people living in them (it currently has 160). Europe, by contrast, has 35. Its largest city, Shanghai, has doubled its office stock over the past five years and, ambitiously, will double it again over the next five years (p66).
The growth from China is a lot to take in. And with a dichotomous tale to be told in terms of the country’s economy and its appetite for overseas investment, understanding the market, its players and their intentions for UK (and global) real estate is vital.
Which is why this special edition of Estates Gazette provides you with more than 20 pages of analysis and commentary on the country.
The best way to understand a market it to be immersed in it, which is why EG is sending its reporters all over the world to bring you insight into the hottest markets in real estate.
This time, news editor Jack Sidders jumped on a plane to China to bring you the first UK interviews with some of the country’s biggest investors and developers, including China Vanke (p70) and the new president of property at Fosun (p74).
And at a time when foreign investment is coming under fire from some political parties and elements of society, promises from China Vanke that any homes it builds in the UK will be sold to domestic buyers can only be applauded.
The UK’s housing problem is a well told story and with China Vanke building more homes in mainland China last year than we managed to build across the UK, its imminent arrival here may prove to be a major part of the solution.
Talking of global matters, the countdown to MIPIM has well and truly begun. In a little over two weeks, some 20,000 of us from across the real estate industry will (hopefully) be whipping out our sunglasses and cracking open the rosé on a sunny Croisette. And working hard, of course.
Estates Gazette will certainly be working hard. There will be more than 20 editorial, commercial, research and marketing staff at the show; we will be launching several high-quality, information-packed, not-to-be-missed magazines; hosting debates with the biggest leaders in the private and public sector; and bringing you all the news, gossip and information from the show, live (and free) at www.estatesgazette.com/mipim so you can be there, here.
