It’s that time of year when forecasters enjoy their moment in the spotlight, running the numbers, calling the shots and ultimately sticking a collective finger in the air.
Theirs is valuable work; and we are better informed for it – even if the views expressed tend to gravitate towards the consensual.
Fortunately, three wise heads popped up this week, putting their money – or reputation – on the line with big, clear calls on 2018.
In building up the £18.5bn Westfield empire, Sir Frank Lowy knows a thing or two about calling the shots and calling it right.
Asked this week why he and his sons, Peter and Steve, were electing to sell the business to Unibail-Rodamco, he was emotional but unwavering.
“We have worked at Westfield for a combined 145 years,” he said.
“It’s a very good price for our shareholders and also, from our point of view – and the company, I think we want to change our roles in the world. We would rather be investors than executives.”
It was a line that smacked of honesty, acknowledged opportunity and, perhaps, revealed much about what the first family of retail saw as the direction of travel in their sector.
After all, they will retain control of Westfield’s retail tech business, OneMarket, which will float as a new company on the Australian Stock Exchange.
For all their success, Clive Bush and Dan Van Gelder’s Exemplar hasn’t yet reached Westfield’s scale. And it won’t, not for the next couple of years at least.
Bush and Van Gelder are calling time on new projects until at least after Brexit completes in 2019.
They will also exit existing schemes, with the business taking what Van Gelder describes as a “siesta”.
Warning of unsustainable pricing in the market, Exemplar will not restart its development programme until it believes “the political and economic climate offers the stability required for responsible development to be delivered”.
It’s a big call, delivered with refreshing candour.
Neither was there was a shortage of candour this week from Jony Ive, chief designer at Apple.
With 5,000 patents to his name and a CV that boasts of a critical role in the development of the iMac, iPhone and iPad, there’s perhaps no one who has had a bigger influence on our relationship with the physical or the virtual.
Most recently he’s turned his attention to Apple Park, the company’s new spaceship-shaped HQ.
An office park developed at a rumoured cost of $5bn, you may consider it an extravagance. If you do, Ive doesn’t care.
“Apple Park has a very specific role,” he said onstage in Washington DC. “It’s not a watch. It’s our house, where we go to work together.
“All of your feelings and feedback around the Macbook you use, we couldn’t want to listen to more. And we hear. Boy do we hear. But Apple Park, I can’t think of another time in the past, or imagine another time in the future, where we get to try to make something that is for us.”
Yes, Apple is different. But how different? We all know that businesses work differently from how they used to. We sometimes forget they work differently from each other. When Ive says: “I know how we work and you don’t”, it’s a salutary reminder of the need to listen to the customer.
So what does this all point to?
Firstly, if you reach a certain station you acquire the right to speak forthrightly.
Secondly, turbulence and uncertainty is so rife these days that those who do speak frankly will get listened to.
Thirdly, business culture is changing.
Sometimes for better and usually for worse, there is a lot more frankness and a lot less consensus in politics these days.
In business, fear of spooking investors, customers or colleagues has convinced executives they should speak opaquely and behave conservatively.
Caution, consensus and conciliatory language have clouded corporate disclosure in recent years.
That era may be coming to an end.
Might Lowy, Van Gelder and Ive usher in a new era where divergent strategies are clearly articulated and celebrated? 2018 might demand it.
• We’re is back in print and on digital on 6 January 2018. We’ll continue publishing breaking news and analysis online over the festive period. If you haven’t already signed up for our free Digital December offer, you can do so here. Have a great Christmas.
To send feedback, e-mail damian.wild@egi.co.uk or tweet @DamianWild or @estatesgazette
