Who or what is likely to exert most influence on the UK property market in 2011?
As the industry stands on the brink of technological, political and economic change, an influential panel of property experts put together by Estates Gazette has ranked what it considers to be a definitive list.
Tellingly, the panel, drawn from across the industry, included few agents, while bankers, economists and politicians were well represented. Our judges, listed overleafspent a morning debating a league table of influence that could have run to many more names.
The countdown to the most influential starts here.
50 The iPad
Property has tended to lag behind other sectors in its adoption of new technologies, but the iPad is capturing the industry’s imagination and awakening it to new ways of doing business. Our panel of judges tip it as the accessory to have as you wander along the Croisette.
49 Richard Batten and Chris Ireland
The property advisory market is ripe for consolidation in 2011. And King Sturge is the current takeover rumour du jour. Should senior partners Richard Batten and Chris Ireland decide a profitable and well-regarded partnership such as King Sturge would be healthier in the arms of another, the future of many of their less-successful rivals will be seriously questioned.
48 Mike Slade, chief executive, Helical Bar
Charm, determination and a devil-may-care attitude has won Slade many admirers. He uses all three to great effect as president of property industry charity LandAid: it will put £1m to work this year. Slade is also the Tory party’s property fundraiser in chief.
47 Mike Prew, real estate analyst, Nomura
Prew has made a name for himself in UK property circles through his often outspoken and opinionated notes on listed property companies. He is widely known as one of the biggest property bears in the City since the financial crisis took hold in the commercial property sector, downgrading many of the major listed REITs.
46 The man (or woman) from the Pru
With Martin Moore becoming chairman of insurer Prudential’s £15.6bn property portfolio, the industry is eagerly waiting for news of his replacement. Whoever takes on the demanding role of managing the 279-strong Prudential Property Investment Management, his or her influence on the industry will not be in dispute.
45 Philip Clarke, group chief executive, Tesco
Liverpool-born Clarke, 50, took over from Sir Terry Leahy this week as the head of the retail giant, which in terms of assets can count itself one of Britain’s largest property owners and occupiers. Clarke faces key decisions on how to manage the store’s ambitious expansion plans in the UK.
44 Ian Womack, global chief executive, real estate, Aviva Investors
Pensions giant Aviva has more than £22bn of real estate funds under management. Womack, a former chairman of the IPF and policy committee member for the BPF, sets its strategic direction.
43 Bill Hughes, managing director, Legal & General Property
Hughes heads one of the largest institutional property fund managers in the UK, with £9.8bn of gross funds under management. His influence extends further via the Bank of England Property Forum and BPF Policy Committee.
42 Anne Kavanagh and Dennis Lopez, global head of property services and global chief investment officer, AXA
With as much as €2.5bn to spend globally on debt, Axa Real Estate is a go-to organisation in the current credit-starved market. As global CEO and head of property services for the insurance giant’s property fund management division, Kavanagh and Lopez are responsible for all AXA Real Estate investment, asset management and development decisions.
41 David Higgins, chief executive, Network Rail
Brisbane-born David Higgins, 57, oversees one of the UK’s largest, most difficult and most valuable real estate portfolios. Network Rail has struggled in recent years to bring forward major development above and around the country’s stations. New incumbent Higgins will need to get development plans back on track.
40 Kim Lewison QC
A former star of the property bar turned High Court judge, Lewison’s influence on the property industry looks set to grow this year, as lenders count their losses from the downturn and their lawyers look ever more closely at values and those who gave them. Is there a landmark case on the horizon?
39 Michael Brodtman, head of UK valuation, CB Richard Ellis
Brodtman is head of a 200-strong valuation practice – the largest in the country – which is responsible for the valuation of 45% of the IPD monthly index. One of the most respected valuers in the market, his views over the coming year will be of particular importance to an industry that hopes to keep moving into recovery.
38 Nick Leslau and Mike Brown, joint founders, Max Property Group
Experienced players Leslau and Brown are keenly watched as they hunt out opportunities for £211m investment vehicle Max Property. During the market slump in 2009, they bought the well-known Industrious portfolio for £244m. Leslau has in the past admitted getting his timing slightly wrong, but his reading of the market is certainly viewed as one worth listening to.
37 John Burns, chief executive, Derwent London
Burns is preparing a £750m war-chest to invest in properties in London as bailed-out banks look to offload assets. A true veteran, Burns has steered Derwent London through many market cycles to its current leading position in the capital.
36 Peter Bennett and Peter Rees, City surveyor and city planning officer, City of London Corporation
Peter Bennett and Peter Rees form a formidable partnership in the City. Bennett manages and coordinates all activity relating to commercial property and construction owned by the City of London. Rees’ responsibilities include supervising the preparation and approval of planning policies for the City of London and negotiating with developers on major planning applications.
35 Boris Johnson, mayor of London
Boris is the most powerful local politician in the country, in charge of the only region to currently have any kind of regional strategy (the London Plan). Through the Mayoral Development Corporation, he will also be taking charge of the assets and responsibilities of the Olympic Park Legacy Corporation.
34 Sir Simon Milton, deputy mayor for policy and planning, London
Former Westminster council leader Milton was appointed deputy mayor in September 2008. He has oversight of the preparation of the mayor’s new London Plan and supports the mayor on strategic planning applications. Also the mayor’s chief of staff, he leads on GLA budgets and administration.
33 Sir Howard Bernstein, chief executive, Manchester city council
All eyes are on “Howard”, as he is known locally, to see how he copes with the government’s cuts of £110m, rising to £170m in 2012/13. Bernstein is known for innovative thinking. Last year, the council bought two plots at Spinningfields from Allied London to unlock development.
32 Toby Courtauld, chief executive, Great Portland Estates
Former MEPC man Toby Courtauld is the driving force behind a development pipeline which is taking shape across London. GPE currently has six schemes on site in the capital – five in the West End and one in Midtown.
31 Mark Preston and Peter Vernon, group chief executive and Britain and Ireland chief executive, Grosvenor
The Duke of Westminster, the richest man in property, happily leaves the running of Grosvenor to former army man Preston. Vernon (pictured) heads Britain and Ireland, focusing this year on reinvesting in its prized London estate and building up its development pipeline.
30 Jamie Ritblat, chief executive, Delancey
Very much his father’s son, Jamie Ritblat is here by dint of his own astute reading of the market. Backed by financier George Soros, he has built asset management operation Delancey into a darling of the private sector. A long-standing relationship with Royal Bank of Scotland is bearing fruit with Delancey’s recent acquisition of the Blade portfolio from Propinvest.
29 Roger Bright and Sir Stuart Hampson, chief executive and chairman, The Crown Estate
Bright and Hampson have shown that they are not afraid to shake things up a bit. The pair were at the forefront of the Crown’s £452m sale last year of a 150-year lease on a 25% stake in London’s Regent Street to Norges Bank Investment Management.
28 Prince Charles
The heir to the throne, with a personal £680m property fortune, Prince Charles showed his influence all too clearly in 2009 when Chelsea Barracks owner Qatari Diar
abandoned its initial masterplan for the site after receiving a letter from the prince criticising its design.
27 Sir Bob Kerslake, permanent secretary, Department for Communities and Local Government
As DCLG permanent secretary, Sir Bob Kerslake is responsible for managing the government department that will drive the localism agenda. The 55-year-old former Homes & Communities Agency head was appointed to his current role in November 2010 – and his first act was to lay off 33% of CLG’s 2,500 staff.
26 John Whittaker, deputy chairman, Capital Shopping Centres
Peel Group chairman Whittaker, 68, engineered a deal in January to sell Manchester’s Trafford Centre to Capital Shopping Centres, while he took a 23.3% stake in CSC as well as assuming the deputy chairmanship of the company. The deal provides Whittaker with the scope to shape the future of UK retail. CSC plans to revamp Lakeside, Braehead and Nottingham.
25 Peter and Stephen Lowy and Michael Gutman, joint chief executives and managing director UK and Europe, Westfield
Peter and Stephen Lowy became joint chief executives for the A$58.2bn shopping centre giant this week. Alongside Westfield’s man in the UK, Gutman, they will oversee the development of the only major retail development set to open next year, the 1.9m sq ft shopping centre adjacent to the Olympics site in Stratford, east London.
24 Internet Retailing
Internet retailing is going to be the big driver of growth for UK retailers over the next few years. By 2020, online sales could comprise as much as 20% of total expenditure, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s latest UK Retail Outlook.
23 Baroness Margaret Ford, chairman, London 2012 Olympic Park Legacy Company
Ford, 53, oversees the legacy side of perhaps the UK’s largest development project – the 500-acre Olympic Park in east London. That remit will be extended to take in a vast portfolio of surrounding sites and development opportunities in April of next year, when the OPLC becomes a Mayoral Development Corporation.
22 Brett White, chief executive, CB Richard Ellis
White, 50, is the chief executive of the world’s largest agent, managing almost 30,000 employees and overseeing the $4bn-plus business. Over the past few years, White has reduced net debt from more than $2bn to just less than $950m. Now he is looking for corporate acquisitions, starting with the purchase of ING REIM for $940m.
21 George Iacobescu, chief executive, Canary Wharf Group
The charming Romanian who has shaped Canary Wharf for more than two decades is backing Land Securities’ Walkie-Talkie scheme in the City, extending yet further his influence over the capital’s landscape. His unwavering belief in Canary Wharf as London’s other financial centre has been vindicated once more by JP Morgan buying the old Lehman HQ.
20 Andy Haldane, executive director for financial stability, Bank of England
As the bank’s executive director of financial stability, Haldane – variously described as a Bank of England grandee, the Bank of England’s grand panjandrum of financial stability, and “a deeply invisible man” – has a crucial role to play in setting interest rates.
19 Ian Marcus, chairman, BoE Property Forum, chairman, European real estate investment banking group, Credit Suisse
As property’s banker, Marcus’s is a trusted voice of experience. Alongside his day job at Credit Suisse, he wields his influence as chair of the industry forum which meets quarterly with the Bank of England.
18 Chris Grigg, chief executive, British Land
Former banker Chris Grigg arrived at BL in January 2009, smack in the middle of an extraordinary period of volatility that saw his predecessor lured off to sort out the mess at RBS. BL has remained on course and Grigg, 51, will be leading it on the acquisition trail this year. His wider influence looks set to grow as he prepares to become president of the British Property Federation in 201
17 Alison Carnwath & Francis Salway, chairman and group chief executive, Land Securities
Working closely with Carnwath, Salway has steered the UK’s largest REIT through one of the worst recessions in history with characteristic cool. He is looking ahead this year to many buying opportunities, and pushing on with development.
16 Collin Lau, head of real estate investment funds, China Investment Corporation
CIC burst onto the UK property scene in 2009, participating in the rescue rights issue for Songbird, an investment likely to prove shrewd. It is not expected to stop there, with Lau guiding the sovereign wealth fund’s expansion.
15 John Grayken, founder and chairman, Lone Star
Private equity fund management houses are enjoying new-found influence as the recession throws up opportunities to buy distressed assets for those with cash-rich backers and an eagle eye. Massachusetts-born Grayken’s $24bn Lone Star is among the most prominent. He founded the firm in 1995 and is on the hunt for deals.
14 Chad Pike, senior managing director and co-head of real estate, Blackstone
Chad Pike is Blackstone’s man in Europe, representing one of the world’s largest private equity investment firms. He showed his keen eye for a bargain in 2009 when he led the group’s purchase of half of British Land’s Broadgate complex in the City for £1bn.
13 Raymond Mould and Patrick Vaughan, chairman and CEO, London & Stamford
Mould, 71, and Vaughan, 64, remain among property’s most influential deal-makers. They have a reputation for perfectly judging property cycles. L&S recently bolstered its warchest to £1bn after bringing in Middle Eastern group Green Park Investment as a partner.
12 Tony Pidgley, chairman, Berkeley Group
A former Barnado’s boy, the 64-year-old made his reputation calling the 1990s housing crash correctly, and is one of the few housebuilders to be making a significant profit and still building. A canny operator and market-maker, ignore him at your peril.
11 Gerald Ronson, chief executive, Heron International
Ronson, 71, is one of property’s great survivors. His thoughts on the state of the market remain a key litmus test for the industry. The east London tycoon, who spent six months in prison for his part in the Guinness scandal, has built up a second fortune and is now completing the 46-storey Heron Tower, EC2. Letting activity suggests his timing is bang on.
10 Liz Peace, chief executive, British Property Federation
Peace, a former civil servant, continues to work tirelessly to alter the perception of the commercial property industry in the eyes of politicians and to lobby for key policy and legislative changes. She is now working to get the government to get TIF up and running so it is available as the economy comes out of the downturn. She previously successfully led the campaign to introduce REITs.
9 Karsten Kallevig, global head of real estate asset strategies, Norges Bank Investment Management
NBIM manages the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global, which last year allocated £16.4bn (a mere 5% of the pot) to a global property push. This makes fresh-faced Norwegian Kallevig a very important man. His initial focus is on prime office and retail properties in London. Already in the bag is a 25% stake in the Crown Estate’s £1.8bn Regent Street property partnership. An office has opened in Mayfair to line up further deals, with anything much under £300m likely to be considered rather too small.
8 Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, Emir of the State of Qatar
The Emir holds sway over the $60bn Qatar Investment Authority and the $5bn-plus Qatari Diar. The funds own prime assets including Chelsea Barracks, SW3; and a stake in the growing Shard scheme, SE1, which needed Qatari backing to get off the ground.
7 John McCready, managing director, Government Property Unit
As the head of the Government Property Unit, the 54-year-old former Ernst & Young senior partner is responsible for managing the efficiency drive across the public sector’s sprawling £370bn property portfolio. His actions could spell make or break for regional economies across the country. McCready has been running the GPU since its inception at the beginning of 2010, surviving the general election which followed soon after.
6 Greg Clark, minister for decentralisation
The 43-year-old Tory MP for Tunbridge Wells is the architect of the government’s controversial Localism Bill. As decentralisation minister, Middlesbrough-born, Cambridge-educated Clark is responsible for overseeing the localism strategy in practice. Seen as a rising star, he makes it onto the list ahead of his CLG colleagues, including secretary of state Eric Pickles.
5 Mervyn King, Governor, Bank of England
In a list of those who will exert most influence on the UK property industry in 2011, it would be impossible to omit the 63-year-old King. He is, after all, chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, whose members will determine when the inevitable interest rate rise will begin. A former London School of Economics professor, King is the only MPC member to have been at every monthly meeting since its inception in 1997. For now, they follow a dovish policy of low interest rates. But for how long?
4 George Osborne, chancellor of the Exchequer
When George Osborne stands up in Parliament to deliver his budget on 23 March, the property industry will be straining to hear every word. The chancellor, who turns 40 this year, has already received countless submissions and delegations from the industry hoping for concessions – anything from a reinstatement of rate relief for empty commercial property to allowing private sector-led TIFs. Whether any of these come to pass depends on Osborne.
3 Irish finance minister
Talks between Fine Gael and the Irish Labour Party over the next Irish government continued as Estates Gazette was going to press. Front-runner for the key role of finance minister is FG’s Michael Noonan (pictured), but whoever gets it will face a tough job. By the terms of its €67.5bn EU bailout, Ireland must slash €15bn from its spending over the next four years. He or she will also have responsibility for “bad bank” Nama. How its 11,000 loans (nominally worth €71.2bn) are handled will shape many UK property transactions this coming year.
2 Antonio Horta-Osorio, chief executive, Lloyds Banking Group
Antonio Horta-Osorio, the new chief executive of Lloyds Banking Group, is a man whose decisions this year will be critical for the property industry. The 46-year-old, Portuguese-born banker, who starts in his new role this week, is ultimately responsible for dealing with billions of pounds of legacy loans and toxic assets on Lloyds’ books. The added complication, of course, is that he must juggle commercial interests with those of the bank’s 41% shareholder – the British government.
1 Stephen Hester, chief executive, Royal Bank of Scotland
As boss of the UK’s largest lender to commercial property, Hester’s influence is impossible to ignore. Two years into a five-year plan to turn around the state-owned bank, he is certainly making progress: results announced last month showed that, for the first time since the bailout, profits from RBS’s “core” bank – the good bits it plans to retain – outweighed losses from the “non-core” or “bad bank” Hester is getting rid of. The vital statistic for the property industry, though, is the £42bn of property debt that still sits in the £138bn non-core bank and which must therefore be repaid or sold by 2014. The judges were in no doubt that this puts Hester firmly in place as the most powerful figure affecting the course of the property sector over the coming year.
