The prospect of a new London airport in the Thames Estuary was good news for the east London economy. So will last month’s announcement by the Airport Commission that it has formally ruled out ‘Boris Island’ dampen regeneration efforts in the city’s eastern boroughs?
Clive Dutton, former executive director for regeneration at Newham council, is positively chipper about east London’s prospects, despite the loss of the mayor of London’s largest and most expensive transport infrastructure proposals.
“There are lots of dots to join up in east London before you get anywhere near an Estuary airport,” he says. “The Olympic Games were great for boosting the local area. Look at how plans for the Royal Docks have been bolstered. That momentum is moving forward across the borough of Newham.”
Dutton admits that those responsible for delivering regeneration will need to ensure they don’t take their feet off the pedals so that the current economic acceleration doesn’t stall. “There is lots of potential in points east without the Estuary airport,” he says.
Dutton adds that the removal of uncertainty about whether ‘Boris Island’ will go ahead is a positive and suggests that proponents of growth and development, in east London and elsewhere, should consider implementing an overarching vision.
He explains: “Many countries have a national economic plan. The absence of one in the UK makes it much easier for those who oppose transformational change to pick off individual schemes.”
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY
Bill Page, head of business space research, Legal & General Property
“Regardless of whether it was the right option, a Thames Estuary hub airport would have engendered meaningful momentum to the wider area. Does this strike a fatal blow for the Gateway’s ambitions? No,
it does not. In the run-up to the last recession, as London prices were running hot, there was significant private-sector interest in the Gateway, in search of yield, development opportunity or diversification. Several big-name property companies looked closely at sites in previously unfamiliar areas. The market turned before capital had a chance to be deployed.
“Today, seven years on, there is added impetus from Crossrail, Stratford and the Royal Docks, as well as a better-understood and supported need for well-connected PRS for London’s workers. Provided investment decisions are based on localised fundamentals rather than regeneration hope value, opportunities are sound. This may yet achieve regeneration, but in a piecemeal way.”
Chris Williams-Ellis, senior director, City agency, BNP Paribas Real Estate
“I am sure that the decision to rule out a Thames Estuary airport will have reduced some of the excitement for regeneration in the area, but how will we ever know? East London has its own momentum – an unstoppable transformation driven by its optimism and new-found confidence to grab the opportunity.
“Clerkenwell, Shoreditch, Dalston, Whitechapel, Hackney Wick, Bethnal Green, Stratford and Canary Wharf are cited as urban regeneration successes, and rightly so, but their potential is already being unlocked by local improvements in infrastructure and not by the promise of a new Thames Estuary airport.
“Therefore, I do not think that it has had any particular influence on the success of, or the current enthusiasm for, east London. That role belongs to the upgrading of north and east London lines and, ultimately, to the formidable release of demand and development potential that will occur after Crossrail’s completion in 2019.”
Nigel Kempner, executive director, Quintain
“The transformation of east London started a generation ago. Its momentum is well established and will continue despite the abandoned proposal for a new airport in the Thames Estuary. The odds were always stacked against this idea, partly because east London already has a hugely successful airport in Docklands that has operated for 25 years and attracts 3m passengers a year, but also because the arrival of Crossrail in 2018 will link swathes of the east London boroughs to this existing airport and directly to Heathrow in the west.
“We always viewed the Estuary airport proposal as a potential kick-start for regeneration in south Essex and north Kent, rather than adding significantly to the momentum that is already in place in east London.”
Jo Valentine, chief executive, London First
“The rejection of Boris Island has not dampened the prospects of major regeneration in the east of the capital in the slightest. The Thames Estuary airport was always a long shot. Now at least we have a little certainty.
The reality on the ground is that east London is going from strength to strength. There is real momentum at Stratford – the Queen Elizabeth II Olympic Park has reopened; BT Sport has based its new offices in the park; Chobham Manor has opened with 2,818 new homes; and there is a commitment from the Financial Conduct Authority to move there in 2018.
“There is also real progress in other parts of east London, such as Royal Docks, where the Silvertown Partnership is transforming the Silvertown Quays, and ABP’s plan to deliver a new commercial district at the Royal Albert Dock.
“East London is in the midst of a renaissance. The key is to keep the investment coming, particularly as we move further away from the heady days of the 2012 Olympics and London continues to compete with the rest of the country for limited government patronage.”
