As plans to create a new high-speed rail network linking England’s major cities remain on track, Mark Simmons asks when and where we can expect the next property hotspots
The first phase of HS2 – the new high-speed rail line – linking London and Birmingham (see below) is running a bit late. Estimates suggest the £50bn infrastructure project is somewhere between six and 20 months behind schedule.
Yet transport experts still expect an on-time opening in 2026 and dismiss suggestions that this summer’s EU referendum result has put the scheme, which is unlikely to receive planning consent until early 2017, at risk.
David Hampton, technical director at transport consultancy Tyréns, says: “It still has cross-party political support and the government has spent too much money to stop now. It’s also worth bearing in mind that HS2 is about creating capacity on the existing rail network and unless the country goes into serious decline we will still need that capacity.”
While there is relative certainty about the new stations expected to open in Birmingham and Solihull in 2026 and Crewe in 2027 (see City hotspots box), timings and indeed even the location of stations for the second phase of HS2 are more open to question, though officially the Y-shaped route from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds is set to become operational in 2033.
Two months ago think-tank IPPR suggested that HS2’s second phase should be delayed in favour of progress on Northern Powerhouse Rail (see below). But BNP Paribas Real Estate’s head of compulsory purchase and infrastructure team, Chris Selway, suggests this is unlikely.
He says: “I’d be surprised, as it makes sense to have the Y-shape in place first. The biggest single issue with HS2 phase two is that the period of property blight has been extended, causing delay and uncertainty for those looking to make investment decisions.”
Clarity on the phase two route could come from government as early as the end of this year, though property professionals in the cities affected report that a buoyant markets mean that HS2 isn’t a key consideration for them at present.
Will Lewis is co-founder of OBI, a property consultancy in Manchester, the city likely to benefit most from HS2’s second phase. He says HS2 and the next wave of infrastructure projects will be nice to have, but that it is not having a great impact on people making decisions right now.
West Midlands is major beneficiary of HS2
When HS2 opens in 2026 its first northern terminus will be in Birmingham’s city centre. Some property commentators suggest that priority should be given to building a new station at Curzon Street in the city’s Eastside district to provide a visual confirmation that the project is proceeding.
But Birmingham City Council development planning manager Richard Cowell says: “We already have our Curzon masterplan in place which showcases the opportunities around the new station. For us it is important that HS2’s second phase goes ahead so that a national network is delivered.”
Although the first high speed trains are still 10 years away from arriving at Curzon Street, residential values in central Birmingham are already rising, admittedly partly because of an influx of HS2 employees who are based in the city for the construction phase. “Each time an announcement about HS2 is made, we have a week or two of increased activity,” says Knight Frank associate Stuart Eustace. He reports a jump in values for new-build apartments from £250 per sq ft to £325 per sq ft.
HS2’s second station in the region will be built at The Hub, Solihull, where an interchange with the existing rail network, Birmingham airport and the national motorway network will be created. The Hub is part of the wider UK central development area, which will be led by the newly formed UK Central Urban Growth Company.
Perry Wardle, assistant director for growth and development at Solihull council, says: “Enabling works will start next year over 346 acres. We think we’ll be able to get 2.65m sq ft of commercial space and 2,000 homes on there.”
City property hotspots around high-speed rail
City centre, Crewe The surprise announcement last winter that part of the second phase of HS2 (now known as 2a) between Birmingham and Crewe will be brought forward to 2027 is likely to bring a renaissance to the town that was originally created by the railway 175 years ago. A new hub station, the exact location of which has still to be agreed, is likely to act as a catalyst for major commercial property development.
Mayfield Quarter, Manchester Last month U+I was chosen by landowners London & Continental Railways, Manchester City Council and Transport for Greater Manchester to take forward the regeneration of land around the former Mayfield Railway station. U+I beat underbidders Carillion, Ask and Patrizia Consortium and Urban & Civic to build out up to 800,000 sq ft of offices and 1,300 homes, which will sit next door to Manchester’s HS2 station at Piccadilly, due to open by 2033.
City centre, Sheffield A campaign by Sheffield to move the proposed HS2 station for the city from an out-of-town site near Meadowhall shopping centre bore fruit this summer, with the announcement of new proposals for high-speed trains to come off HS2 south of Sheffield, onto a new line to connect into the existing city centre station. A new link line running north to join HS2 north of Sheffield is also under consideration. It is too early to judge which schemes will benefit, but values in a wide radius around the station should be boosted.
South Bank, Leeds A rethink over the station location – now to be integrated with the city’s existing rail hub – has been broadly welcomed and is likely to create the opportunity for a new office development on the 320-acre South Bank site, as well as the wider area around Leeds City station. It is likely that a masterplan will be drawn up to allow for strategic development of the area before the high-speed trains arrive in 2033.
Nottingham and Derby Although the final route of HS2’s second phase, which will take it through the East Midlands, is still to be finalised, it is likely that a hub station on brownfield land at Toton, midway between Derby and Nottingham, will be built in 2033 and connected to each city centre by a light rail or tram link. East Midlands property experts suggest that this will create multiple investment opportunities in each of the city centres, plus a brand new commercial and residential quarter at Toton.
What is Northern Powerhouse rail?
HS3 was the informal name given to a proposed high-speed trans-Pennine (east-west) railway linking future HS2 terminals in Manchester and Leeds.
But this year the term has quietly been dropped in official documents, including by umbrella organisation Transport for the North. Its Northern Transport Strategy document published earlier this year now simply refers to Northern Powerhouse Rail, a wider term that includes improving rail links between all major cities in the North of England.
Transport experts suggest that this positive move acknowledges that the real issue is not moving people around more quickly, but introducing greater capacity across the whole network to promote more comfortable journeys and better take-up of public transport.
