As cities born of industrialisation, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds have each been developed across canal networks, accompanied by wharves, bridges, tunnels and basins.
But their skylines have taken on a different shape in recent years as investors realised the regeneration potential that each city holds. Within the next two decades, they are likely to look even more different.
In a new report, Cushman & Wakefield has looked at key developments across the three cities to understand how the form and function of real estate in them could change by 2040.
Birmingham to lure London office occupiers
Cushman expects Birmingham to woo major office occupiers away from London on the back of its reduced cost base, with operating expenses averaging some 40% below their London equivalents.
Moves will also be driven by short commute times for employees, high quality office space and the strong amenity offering.
Smithfield will be among the key schemes driving that trend, says Cushman.
Although the project faces an uncertain future on the back of the city council’s financial woes, the development is expected to be in its final phase by 2040, providing leisure, office and city living space, and a school.
In addition, Cushman expects Birmingham’s central business district to gravitate toward Curzon Street station amid the continued growth of the knowledge economy.
The growth of the life sciences and health sectors will be a key feature of this, with the Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Foundation Trust securing a new city campus with the University Teaching Hospital alongside, and a satellite campus for the Francis Crick Institute.
Other potentially game-changing schemes include the redevelopment of Snow Hill Station, slated to deliver the first vertical labs built outside of London, bringing a total of 750,000 sq ft of office and lab space to the city.
Meanwhile, the innovation district around Solihull’s Arden Cross is set to become a major proponent in developing the hydrogen rail network in the UK, as well as producing the next generation of zero carbon autonomous road vehicles.
However, Cushman expects pressure on housing land to continue to prove problematic in Birmingham over the next 20 years, with further allocations laying on the brink of breaking into the green belt. This will also continue to be the focus of political debate.
That said, Brindleyplace is expected to partly ease that pressure and evolve as the city’s first 15-minute urban neighbourhood, with office buildings within the scheme repurposed and retrofitted for co-living.
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Culture vultures to flock to Manchester
Cushman predicts that Manchester will become a global life science cluster, complementing the Golden Triangle markets of Cambridge, Oxford and London.
In addition, the city is expected to become a global destination for cultural tourism, including music, art and sport.
Further developments – including the recently-opened Aviva Studio, the 23,500 capacity Co-op Arena and Manchester City Football Club’s proposals to turn its stadium into a leisure destination with increased capacity of up to 60,000 people – are expected to place the city on a par with Milan, Berlin, Boston and Frankfurt, attracting international visitors throughout the year.
On housing, Cushman expects Manchester to be able to offer a better range of energy efficient affordable and social homes by 2040, including for older people wanting to live in locations well served by amenities. The recently announced Greater Manchester devolution deal is set to enable a greater ability to determine locally how services are delivered.
A focus remains on tall towers in light of Renaker’s proposals for a 71-storey residential tower, dubbed the Lighthouse, at Great Jackson Street.
Caroline Baker, regional managing partner for the North West region at Cushman, said: “There is no doubt that the skyline will continue to see more, higher towers by 2040 – with schemes averaging heights of over 20 storeys.
“The principles of increasing density across the centre, outside of the historic core, and especially at our major transport interchanges, should be supported to make more efficient use of our brownfield land assets, reduce the reliance on private cars, and to improve air quality.”
Cushman also expects a focus on repurposing and improving some of the existing buildings in the city, such as the Manchester Arndale shopping centre.
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Leeds to double down on hubs
Cushman foresees a repurposing and redevelopment boom in Leeds over the coming decades, driven by the growing obsolescence of existing real estate, changes in energy performance standards and shifts in the aspirations of commercial and residential occupiers.
The move will see many of the commercial developments built pre-2000 retrofitted or repurposed, with fresh schemes bringing in new styles of building design.
Leeds is expected to consolidate around four hubs, each having a distinct identity, and building on its existing anchors: the Leeds rail station is retail and leisure; South Bank is creative; Wellington Street is professional services and corporate; and the Universities area is known for innovation, education and health.
In addition, areas in between these focal points are expected to offer opportunities for other uses, such as residential, public realm, cultural activities and urban farms, servicing-based activities and convenience retail.
The area south of Park Square to Wellington Street was identified by Cushman as a location which could retain a mixed-use character, but with an increasing bias towards residential.
Elsewhere, the agency expects traditional prime retail areas in Leeds, such as Briggate and Commercial Street, to feel less like shopping streets by 2040, with a mix of residential, leisure and other experiential activities.
In terms of housing, Cushman expects the market to extend outwards, with enhanced demand in suburbs such as Headingley, Chapel Allerton and Alwoodley, and in towns outside the city boundary such as Otley.
As such, land and property values will inflate around these locations, creating opportunities for property development and value capture.
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