|
Sterling yield curve and swap rates |
|
Source: JC Rathbone Associates |
” Having staged a rally the previous week, the debt markets headed back for the hills last week as the release of a single economic statistic in the US – the purchasing managers’ survey – panicked dealers into marking yields substantially higher. While US rates rose by some 0.4% in the longer end, UK rates rose by 0.3% throughout the maturity range, and eurozone rates were not far behind.
” It is clear that the long downward trend in medium- and longer-term rates has probably come to an end in both the US and UK.But the eurozone economies are likely to continue downwards. The rate movements of last week could well turn out to be a spike that may be partially reversed over the next month. However, it will be a brave borrower who leaves himself unprotected in such a volatile and nervous market given that further short-term rate cuts are at, or close to, an end.
|
Interest rates |
|
|
Clearing banks’ base lending rate (18 Nov) |
4.00% |
|
London interbank offered rate (3 months) |
41/32-47/8% |
|
Euro Libor (3 months) |
3.36% |
|
Euro repo rate |
3.25% |
|
Compulsory acquisition – rate for re-entry (1 Oct) |
4.25% |
|
House rebuilding costs |
|||||
|
2000 |
Mar |
158.5 |
Aug |
164.7 |
|
|
Nov |
155.3 |
Apr |
158.6 |
Sept |
165.7 |
|
Dec |
153.3 |
May |
159.0 |
Oct |
165.8 |
|
2001 |
June |
159.2 |
Nov |
166.1 |
|
|
Feb |
156.3 |
July |
164.4 |
||
|
Source: Association of British Insurers |
|||||
|
UK house prices |
||||
|
Nationwide Building Society indices (1st quarter 1993=100) |
||||
|
Quarter ended |
New |
Secondhand |
All properties |
|
|
modern |
older |
|||
|
Sept 1999 |
136.2 |
139.4 |
154.7 |
144.4 |
|
Dec 1999 |
139.8 |
144.1 |
159.5 |
148.9 |
|
Mar 2000 |
144.5 |
149.8 |
166.5 |
155.0 |
|
June 2000 |
147.6 |
156.9 |
174.4 |
162.0 |
|
Sept 2000 |
149.6 |
156.7 |
174.7 |
161.5 |
|
Dec 2000 |
150.8 |
158.3 |
179.9 |
162.8 |
|
Mar 2001 |
155.2 |
161.6 |
180.8 |
170.2 |
|
June 2001 |
158.4 |
169.7 |
189.3 |
174.8 |
|
Sept 2001 |
164.4 |
175.9 |
196.2 |
181.5 |
|
Insignia Richard Ellis monthly index |
||
|
Nov |
Year to Nov |
|
|
Total return (%) |
||
|
All property |
0.5 |
5.3 |
|
Offices |
0.0 |
7.0 |
|
High street retail |
0.6 |
2.1 |
|
Retail warehouses |
0.7 |
6.5 |
|
Industrial |
1.1 |
8.2 |
|
Rental growth (%) |
||
|
All property |
0.1 |
3.7 |
|
Offices |
-0.3 |
6.3 |
|
High street retail |
0.2 |
1.8 |
|
Retail warehouses |
0.5 |
2.7 |
|
Industrial |
0.5 |
2.6 |
|
Capital growth (%) |
||
|
All property |
-0.1 |
-2.0 |
|
Offices |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
|
High street retail |
0.1 |
-4.6 |
|
Retail warehouses |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
|
Industrial |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
Source: Insignia Richard Ellis Research Consultancy |
||
|
Annual change in house prices (% pa) |
|
Source: Nationwide Building Society |
