The construction industry’s new-work output will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2027, according to new analysis.
As part of its quarterly briefing, the Building Cost Information Service has revealed its short and long-term forecast for UK construction – and the outlook remains challenging.
According to the data, total construction output has only just reached pre-pandemic levels, largely driven by growth in the repair and maintenance sector – but new-work output is still below 2019 levels.
David Crosthwaite, head of consultancy services at BCIS, said: “Our forecasts suggest new construction work output will not return to pre-crises levels until late 2027 – that is almost eight years of no real growth in the sector.”
Commercial construction has seen the largest decline in output over the past two years, with growth predicted to be minimal through to 2027, as requirements for retail and office space have fundamentally changed since the pandemic.
Crosthwaite added: “The positive news is that it appears supply constraints are easing, leading to costs and prices stabilising in the long run. We think inflation has peaked and we could be over the worst of it – all eyes are now turning to the length and depth of recession.”
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