There’s a danger lurking in the shadows: numbers. They are, according to several speakers at this week’s MIPIM UK, dangerous.
It would be easy to dismiss these fears as a dereliction of duty, a ducking of accountability, a dodging of responsibility. But I have some sympathy. Whether it’s overseas investment, garden cities or housing supply more generally, if we get too hung up on the numbers we’ll miss something altogether more important.
On overseas investment, British Land chief executive Chris Grigg said one day it could account for as much as half of all property investment in the UK. Does it matter, if the investment continues to flow? Perhaps not. And it may be counterproductive to focus on origination at a time when the debate around foreign versus domestic ownership of residential veers dangerously close to hysteria.
Or perhaps more significantly, take garden cities. Should the priority be to deliver a potentially unrealistic 15,000 homes in new towns? Or should it be to create viable, sustainable and attractive new conurbations where people want to live?
It’s the same with the housing debate. Yesterday a panel that counted among its number (damn, wrong phrase) CapCo’s Ian Hawksworth, Berkeley’s Tony Pidgley and Barratt’s Mark Clare cautioned against getting too hung up on the figures. At a time when the number of housing units actually needed is disputed (200,000? 300,000?) is it sensible to focus almost entirely on the delivery gap? Doing that, ran the argument, is to set a daunting target that gets ignored. Better to concentrate on narrowing the gap and talk of opportunity rather than problems.
Of course, we shouldn’t neglect targets. Dismissing them entirely would threaten progress and delivery. But at a time when some of the most effective solutions to long-standing infrastructure challenges are coming through new ways of thinking (devolution, joint ventures and mutually beneficial public-private partnerships), shouldn’t we be taking a similarly creative approach to benchmarking success?
■ The Earl of Wessex labelled EG’s deputy editor Samantha McClary “extraordinary” at a VIP lunch at MIPIM UK this week, after her 1,100-mile Challenge came to an end. He was absolutely right. Sam has raised a jaw-dropping £75,000 through her 15 days of running and cycling the length and breadth of the country. It was an impressively heroic effort. A credit too to the generosity of this industry. It’s not too late to donate; go to http://uk.virginmoneygiving.com/1100miles1nutter to do so.
■ Yes the show started with protests, somewhat harshly given that huge swathes of the 4,000 or so delegates inside were seeking solutions to intractable public sector problems (and, yes, at a profit). Nevertheless, the event was a resounding success, the biggest property show ever staged in the UK. There were queues around the hall for Boris; indeed, all the residential sessions drew big crowds, perhaps suggesting where this industry’s (and the country’s) priorities currently lie. But it stayed busy through Thursday too, right up to the first MIPIM UK/Estates Gazette Awards that evening (congratulations to all – from Lord Heseltine to Manchester to Edinburgh council chief executive Sue Bruce and many others besides). And with the dates set for next year, and 77% of the delegates never having attended MIPIM Cannes, it looks like a show that will run and run. Catch up with all the coverage at www.estatesgazette.com/MIPIM.
■ From MIPIM UK this week to Dubai next, where Estates Gazette is staging the first Global Real Estate Debate in partnership with Cluttons. A great panel and a contentious issue – can Dubai become the business capital of the world? – add up to make for a fascinating session. There are more details this week on page 275 and full coverage to follow in EG.
