Good news. As my colleague Julia Cahill, who edited the much-anticipated Estates Gazette Rich List 2010, writes in this week’s supplement: “Property’s surviving super-rich are marching in the right direction again: onwards and upwards.”
It was easy to take an all too typically British satisfaction in the falls in wealth that this rarefied group has endured over the two previous painful years. Property’s 250 wealthiest individuals lost almost £30bn off their collective wealth, from a high of £98bn in 2007 to a low of £69bn last year.
But, for most, the recovery is now feeding through. The total wealth of that group this year touches £72bn – a modest but comforting 4% rise.
The top performers this year are inevitably those with low borrowings and solid assets, with the big London estates such as Grosvenor, Cadogan and Howard de Walden all seeing their fortunes rise.
But it’s not just old money that is making money. Seasoned dealmakers such as David and Simon Reuben and Richard and Ian Livingstone are also among the top performers.
There are, of course, losers – with Irish investors and developers featuring heavily. And theirs is a story likely to get worse before it gets better. Our listing is necessarily historical and based on filed accounts. Once these are updated and reflect Nama’s updated view on the value of Ireland’s property assets, many of those wealth figures are likely to tumble.
For now, let’s celebrate those recovering fortunes. To a greater extent than many would like to admit, the industry’s fortunes depend on them.
• Tom Bloxham divides opinion. To some, he is a self-publicist, too easily given to self-congratulatory comments along the lines of this week’s tweet: “Just realised – in the last 3 weeks I’ve eaten at 3 N0BUs on 3 Continents – I guess that makes me a) very lucky & b) a bit unadventurous.” You have to admit, he gives his critics bait.
To others, though, he is a regeneration champion and a survivor. EG talks to him this week. And he demonstrates the resilience that his background would clearly have demanded.
Rising from flogging music posters to selling upscale flats in unloved parts of the North West, and beyond, demands resilience. And after two tough years for his Urban Splash Group, he is rolling up his sleeves – in his own words, “getting up earlier in the day, grafting harder and finding new ways of working”.
That means that the old model of marketing to a hungry clientele of mortgage-backed professionals is having to give way to more shared-ownership structures. And the go-it-alone philosophy of the old-fashioned property entrepreneur is being replaced by a joint-venture ethos.
Bloxham unveils an appointment by Investec to help the bank transform what has been dubbed Brighton’s ugliest building. His is a good example of adapting to the new climate.
• With Europe’s retail property elite gathering in Cannes for Mapic, advisers are falling over themselves to call the market in 2011.
King Sturge warned of mixed messages in the sector: “Strong retail demand and record rents in some locations, rising vacancy and plummeting rents in others. A return of investment flows and yield compression in some markets, no investor appetite and zero deals in others.”
Cushman & Wakefield pointed to a couple of key performance drivers in 2011, with vacancy rates and supply – particularly shopping centre development – leading the pack. Retailer demand will remain cautious and selective, it said, with prime flying off developers’ shelves and secondary hard to shift.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose, as the UK contingent won’t be saying in Cannes this week.
damian.wild@estatesgazette.com
