LISTEN: Not one of the central London commercial property professionals surveyed by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors believes a pro-Brexit vote would be positive for the sector.
Just 6% of the 302 respondents across the UK overall believed a leave vote would be good for the industry, according to a market survey published today.
The overwhelming response was revealed in the same week that Land Securities chief executive Richard Noel said a Brexit would have a sustained negative impact on the UK market.
JLL’s London director of capital markets, Andrew Hawkins, said the fall in investment volumes from £15bn to £11bn over the past two quarters was “without question” partly down to investors and occupiers pausing before the referendum.
Speaking at the paper’s launch on Thursday, he said colleagues in Paris and Frankfurt were “licking their chops” hoping that lots of bankers would move out of London to European cities, and that more investment was already being diverted to Paris despite its greater regulation.
Brexit was also forecast to cause a prolonged period of uncertainty for the residential market. Grainne Gilmore, Knight Frank’s head of residential research, said: “The market can cope with change. What it can’t cope with is uncertainty.”
Labour was the biggest concern for Arcadis client development director Simon Light. He said: “We are heavily reliant at the moment on the migrant workforce, with 10-12% of the workforce coming from outside the UK.” Big infrastructure investment decisions such as HS2, Crossrail 2 and Hinkley Point were also believed to have been delayed by the decision, he added.
Remain or Leave? Key findings from the RICS EU Referendum Paper
Offices
Remain: Multinational UK-based HQs occupy large offices, ensuring continued investment, development and employment.
Leave: UK-set trade agreements could entice international firms for continued sector confidence.
Residential
Remain: EU nationals purchase higher-end properties, ensuring continued market activity.
Leave: Reduction of migration could cool demand on supply and housing benefits.
Industrial
Remain: Tariff-free exporting assists manufacturing sector and the continued use of industrial property.
Leave: Removed from EU red tape and regulation, industry capacity will grow.
Retail
Remain: Withdrawal from EU will see loss of retail HQs and increased vacancy rates.
Leave: UK residents’ purchasing power still driver for external interests in retail sector.
Damning @RICSnews poll shows extent of #Brexit fears https://t.co/qD96nXOMc2 What would benefit property?
— Estates Gazette (@EstatesGazette) April 28, 2016
To send feedback, e-mail louisa.clarence-smith@estatesgazette.com or tweet @LouisaClarence or @estatesgazette
