Not a single central London commercial property market professional believes a pro-Brexit vote would be positive for the sector, according to RICS.
And just 6% of 302 respondents it polled from across the UK believed a leave vote would be good for the industry.
The overwhelming response was revealed in the same week that Land Securities chief executive Richard Noel said a Brexit would have a sustained negative impact on the UK market.
Andrew Hawkins, London director of capital markets at JLL, said the fall in investment volumes from £15bn in the last quarter of 2015 to £11bn in the first quarter of 2016 was partly down to investors and occupiers pausing before the referendum.
He said colleagues in Paris and Frankfurt were “licking their chops” hoping that bankers would move out of London to European cities. Hawkins added that more investment was already being diverted to Paris despite its greater regulation.
Brexit was also forecast to cause a prolonged period of uncertainty for the residential sector. Knight Frank head of residential research Grainne Gilmore said: “The market can cope with change. What it can’t cope with is uncertainty.”
Labour was the biggest concern for Arcadis client development director Simon Light. He said: “We are heavily reliant at the moment on the migrant workforce, with 10-12% of the workforce coming from outside the UK.”
Big infrastructure investment decisions such as HS2, Crossrail 2 and Hinkley Point were believed to have been delayed ahead of the vote, he added.
Remain or leave? Key findings from the RICS EU referendum paper
If UK leaves
Offices
UK-set trade agreements will entice international firms, driving sector confidence.
Residential
Reduction of migration cools demand for supply and housing benefits.
Industrial
Removal of EU red tape and regulation gives industry capacity to grow.
Retail
UK residents’ purchasing power remains driver for external interests in retail.
If UK remains
Offices
Multinational UK-based HQs occupy large offices, ensuring continued investment, development and employment.
Residential
EU nationals purchase high-end properties, ensuring continued market activity.
Industrial
Tariff-free exporting assists manufacturing sector and demand for industrial property.
Retail
Loss of retail HQs and increased vacancy rates.
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