Ross Goobey Lecture: ‘Green shoots’ and big risks

  There was plenty of talk of ‘green shoots’ at last night’s inaugural Alastair Ross Goobey Memorial Lecture, but the audience of senior property figures was also reminded that the big risks they now face are tenant failures and falling rents.   Veteran fund manager Anthony Bolton, president of investment at Fidelity International, who has been moving back into battered property stocks, said he was “seeing the first signs that things are becoming less bad with green shoots, I believe, coming through.”   Bolton referred to “huge amounts” of cash sitting on the sidelines in the US because of a fear of losing money, but said that this would eventually come back into the stock market.   In the UK, he said that the government’s Asset Protection Scheme meant that banks “won’t have to sell property aggressively”. But he added: “The risk is in rents. We will see more bankruptcies.”   Chris Turner, fund manager at Thames River Capital, agreed that rents were “the big problem”, but said that inflation would help rental values.   Charlie Mayfield, chairman of the John Lewis Partnership, described a “very mixed picture” in the retail sector. “We’ve seen a clear out of weak retailers. In a property sense there is reduced demand for space, particularly in secondary locations.”   “We are forecasting more cautiously on growth and profit and we’re focussing on cash flow.”   The lecture was organised by the Investment Property Forum to honour the memory of former Hermes chief executive Ross Goobey, who died last year.   julia.cahill@rbi.co.uk