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Savills: London turnover to hit £19.4bn

empty-office-generic-THUMB.jpegCentral London office investment will reach £19.4bn by the end of 2015, a 10% drop on the record £21.6bn transacted last year, according to Savills.

The forecast includes almost £3bn of stock that is currently under offer and expected to exchange or complete before the end of the year.

While numbers are down slightly on last year’s record highs, the figure is some 80% up on the long-run average of £10.8bn.

The first half of the year was dominated by UK institutions, according to Savills, but they have since switched their attention to the regional markets.

Overseas buyers from the Middle East, US and Asia have remained a significant force throughout, with Taiwanese investors particularly active.

Savills also noted that despite the slowdown in their domestic economy, Chinese investors accounted for around 11% of total turnover, in line with 2014.

Of the total turnover, £8.4bn will be invested in the West End by the year end, while Savills expects to see over £11bn transacted in the City, the third-highest volume ever recorded and almost double the long-run average.

It is also forecasting a strong end-of-year performance, noting that on average across the past three years, the final quarter has accounted for 44% of City turnover.

Stephen Down, head of Central London investment at Savills, said: “Total investment will significantly surpass the long-term average performance. Our expectation is that end-of-year figures will be around 10% down on the record-breaking result of 2014, which may come as a surprise to some, given some early negative comments post summer.”

Investment volumes have helped drive yields to record lows, with the City ending the year steady at 4% and the West End moving in by 25 bps to 3%.

jack.sidders@estatesgazette.com

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