Over my 40 years in the business, I have seen many changes in the property market, and much has been said about the current housing crisis, dubbed the “crisis of our day”.
Labour’s London mayoral candidate, Sadiq Khan, one of the two frontrunners alongside the Conservatives’ Zac Goldsmith, has gone so far as to say: “London’s mayoral elections should be a referendum on the housing crisis.” Both have put property firmly at the top of their mayoral agendas.
Whoever takes the helm at City Hall will need to tackle London’s housing problems. So with just three months to go, here is my auctioneer’s mayoral manifesto for the city’s next most powerful man or woman.
Firstly, improve transport connections for commuters. The capital is now home to more than 8.6m people, a greater number than at any time in its history. With a population projected to hit 10m by 2030, London will need its future mayor to accept the challenge of ensuring the city’s infrastructure keeps pace with the increasing demand.
The outgoing mayor, Boris Johnson, was recently quoted in the Financial Times advising his replacement to “understand the vital connection between transport infrastructure and housing development”. London, he says, will continue to be the greatest city in the world, but only if the capital invests in new transport projects such as Crossrail 2 to link the city centre with new housing projects.
Crossrail 2, a proposed new north-south link across the capital, is at the forefront of most Londoners’ minds. Both Goldsmith and Khan have committed their support to delivering this project. Khan has also put pressure on Transport for London to reconsider building a station in his home constituency of Tooting, after the route was recently changed to go through Balham to reduce costs following the discovery of difficult ground conditions under Tooting Broadway.
As London’s rocketing property prices force more people to move out to the regions, Crossrail 2 is, in my view, a necessity to improve connectivity and support future economic growth, while alleviating the crowded trains now on the transport network. According to City Hall analysts, by 2050, the demand for public transport will have increased by 60% on the Underground and by 80% on the national rail network compared to current levels.
It will also support the delivery of thousands of new homes across London by allowing new residential suburbs to be created, and by fostering the economic regeneration of towns outside the capital. In the longer term, it will allow London to keep pace with other global cities such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing, which are already serviced by high-speed transport connections.
My second wish would be to increase house building in London and invest in affordable housing. While London’s rapidly increasing property prices are a sign of the capital’s success, investment must be made into supplying more affordable housing, otherwise we risk having employees who cannot afford to live anywhere near their place of work.
The current mayor has fallen short of his own target of building 42,000 affordable homes a year, and the next mayor must put pressure on the government to ensure more land owned by public bodies is freed up for development, and that brownfield land in public and private ownership suitable for development is made available.
If these challenges are not enough for the new mayor, a referendum on the EU looks set to occur during his tenure. If Britain did vote to leave the EU, what might be the consequences for the British housing market?
Long-term predictions are usually as accurate as gazing into a crystal ball. On the one hand, markets like certainty, so it is likely that, as we approach the referendum, we may see some caution in the property market as buyers and sellers wait to see which way Britain votes. However, a Britain freed from the bonds of EU legislation could well attract more inward investment and have a positive impact on the property market. Either way, the next mayor will have a number of challenges to look forward to.
But now, for me, it’s back to the business of auctions.
