by Rachel Unsworth and Jane Woo
Completion of the Channel Tunnel is scheduled for 1993. Much of the direct and indirect impact of the tunnel will not be apparent for several years, but there is already an awareness that 150m people will live within a day’s drive of east Kent–a largely “undiscovered” part of South East England. This survey points to the opportunities for commercial property development.
During recent years, east Kent has had lower levels of economic activity and higher unemployment than the other parts of the county. Consequently, commercial property development and take-up have also been less significant than in the more prosperous mid and south-west Kent. From 1984, the latter areas have improved: unemployment has fallen, job vacancies have more than doubled and there has been growth in distribution, financial services and catering. East Kent has experienced more modest improvements, with job vacancies increasing to around the national average and only a limited fall in vacancy rates of commercial premises. During the 1980s, north and east Kent together have accounted for less than 50% of the office take-up. In mid-1987 speculative office development in east Kent accounted for only 10% of the county total.
East Kent has shared in the dramatic increase over the last few years in the number of planning decisions (see Fig. 1). The fall in the number of decisions in recent months is mainly due to the increase in applications (see Fig. 2) and the greater complexity of some proposals. The number of applications continues to rise in each of the five districts: Ashford, Canterbury, Dover, Shepway and Thanet.
House prices in east Kent increased by 14% in the second quarter of 1988 — faster than in other parts of the county, indicating firm demand. The five-year land supply for housing throughout Kent is in excess of the five-year policy requirement, so considerable growth can be accommodated.
Contrasts within east Kent
Ashford, Canterbury and Folkestone have experienced employment growth during the 1980s and it is in these towns that office demand has been concentrated. Ashford has an advantage in being relatively well-located and Canterbury’s attractive environment pulls in tourists, residents and commerce. Some sizeable Folkestone office blocks which had been on the market for some years have been let, as local demand has picked up.
It is Dover and Thanet districts and the Herne Bay and Whitstable area which have the most severe problems now and which are the subject of concerted efforts to improve employment prospects. Dover is expected to experience a net loss of between 1,400 and 4,400 jobs as a result of the tunnel. Near Dover are the former coal-mining areas of the county where two more mines have recently been closed, leaving only one mine still in operation. Thanet suffers from a relatively remote location, out-of-date tourist facilities and a shortage of quality commercial property.
Opportunities and initiatives
Investment in infrastructure, provision of incentives and the many advantages of east Kent in post-tunnel, post-1992 Europe seem certain to attract developers, investors, tenants and residents over the next few years.
The prospect of the Channel Tunnel has precipitated an effort to ensure that there will be maximum benefits and minimum adverse impact in east Kent. The county and district councils, in conjunction with Eurotunnel, Trans Manche Link and British Rail, commissioned a series of investigations of problems and potentials. Findings and recommendations of these formed the Kent Impact Study (KIS). The second review of the structure plan, now before the Secretary of State, took KIS into account so that responses to development pressures will fit with positive overall county strategy.
The sparsely populated countryside of the North Downs is an important resource: a high-quality environment is attractive to residents and tourists. So, despite the commitment in Kent towards maximising development opportunities, environment and conservation issues limit the scale and location of commercial, transport and housing developments. The emphasis in the recommendations of KIS is towards capitalising on the quality of the environment in ways which compatible with its preservation and which encourage its improvement. East Kent does have the advantage, from a development point of view, of not being in the green belt.
Opportunities for growth include business and financial services, some manufacturers (electronics, pharmaceuticals, plastics, printing and publishing), distribution and tourism. Clean, low-density activities are favoured and fewer suitable sites are likely to be available for large-scale, heavy industry. Up to 30,000 new jobs could be created in Kent over the next decade, of which 11,000 might be as a result of the tunnel and related infrastructure developments. To accommodate this expansion, the structure plan review sets out guidelines for provision of commercial development land. Existing commitments plus new allocations for 1986-91 for east Kent are given as 120ha with 105ha in each of the subsequent five-year periods. In the eastern area, KIS laid a great deal of emphasis on the potential for tourism developments.
Initiatives for economic development
Improved access to east Kent is seen as crucial to link the area to the rest of the UK and to continental Europe. Contracts for the M20 “missing link” are now going out and completion is scheduled for spring 1991. The new line of the A20 between Dover and Folkestone will be finished in time for the tunnel opening. Dualling of the A299 (Thanet Way) is to be completed by mid-1994. Construction of the Dartford River Crossing has started and by 1991 this will carry all southbound traffic of the M25 while the existing tunnels take the northbound traffic. Diagonal roads through Kent are also to be improved.
A fast rail link may be privately developed. If it goes ahead, with the main aim of increasing the efficiency of the tunnel, there will be spin-offs for Kent as a whole: even parts of Kent which are now remote will be brought within 90 minutes of London.
Pulling together the various strands of initiative in east Kent is the county council’s new economic development strategy, now out for consultation. It aims to provide a co-ordinated programme of initiatives whereby the council will help to stimulate development which best uses the resources and potential of the county. There is recognition that, particularly in the more run down areas, some of the proposals of the KIS will require pump-priming to create conditions in which growth can become self-sustaining — the public sector will have to prepare the way for the private sector.
Kent Economic Development Board, now four years old, has demonstrated success in promoting the county to investors, in arranging venture capital and in matching supply and demand in the property market.
The tourism industry
Between 3,000 and 4,000 jobs could be created in tourist-related activities if the improvements and developments of tourist facilities and attractions suggested in KIS take place. There is an ample labour pool, but skills need to be brought into line with requirements of high-quality services. Great scope exists to upgrade hotels, thus attracting more long-term visitors from further afield. Co-ordinated marketing in east Kent will encourage tourists to visit several attractions during a trip or stay and will be essential to stimulate interest in the many new attractions which are planned.
High-profile marketing will be the key to the success of whatever leisure developments take place. Ideas on marketing have already progressed beyond the recommendations of KIS with the appointment of specialist staff and consultants.
KIS suggested that Dover could build on its functions in freight forwarding, haulage and distribution as less freight traffic than passenger traffic will be lost to the tunnel. Such activities will not be on a large enough scale to balance the job losses from reduction in ferry operations, and suitable sites are in short supply because of terrain and access in this physically dramatic town where the Downs meet the channel. However, the attractive setting is an asset for tourism which is seen as a major element of Dover’s future development. So far, though, the rich historic heritage has not been very thoroughly exploited. Projects currently under consideration are a museum of coastal invasion and defence, schemes featuring Roman history, upgrading of the town centre and a marina in the Western Docks. Tourist facilities will also be improved in Sandwich and Deal.
In Thanet, ideas for evitalising tourism include a model-making centre, a British Food Centre and a Day Indoor Resort. The starred hotels of Thanet have formed an association to tackle training and investment. The county council’s environmental improvement scheme in Gravesham is being followed by a similar one in Ramsgate. Herne Bay and Whitstable are receiving special attention with the aim of upgrading the environment and facilities.
Other commercial developments
Development briefs have been prepared by Dover District Council for the two large colliery sites of Tilmanstone and Snowdown. Various types of development could take place. The European Coal & Steel Community has already helped to attract considerable investment to the designated Employment Priority Area of Dover and Thanet Districts and will continue to direct investment to these areas.
Kent International Airport at Manston will be improved to take 500,000 passengers and 50,000 tonnes of freight by the mid-1990s. Nearby, the proposed 100-acre business park at Minster will provide high-quality industrial space which Thanet very much needs.
Building on success
Ashford
Ashford has long been a growth point and there is strong commitment for further expansion. The road freight clearance depot and rail passenger terminal will cause changes which will require the local plan to be rolled forward when the reviewed Kent Structure Plan is adopted.
Commerce and population are welcomed, but it is important for the town itself and for Kent as a whole that developments are given the go ahead such that infrastructure and commercial capacity will be in phase with demand. The county council sees Ashford’s growth creating spin-offs which will spread throughout east Kent. Ashford planners indicate that the town is most likely to expand to the south-east and would prefer to see new building tagged on to existing built areas.
Most of the significant applications made since the Channel tunnel became a certainty await permission and many of the developments currently proposed will not come to fruition for a few years. The bulge in planning applications recently experienced is due to developers wishing to get a foothold in the town which is likely to see most impact from the tunnel and where there is a presumption in favour of development. Schemes such as the redevelopment of the cattle market are seen as long term rather than immediate prospects. A council-owned industrial site to the south-east of the town centre is currently under preparation to take warehousing and light industry, and the science park proposed for the site near junction 9 of the M20 has outline permission. Though it is not thought appropriate for there to be further large-scale shopping developments in the town centre at this time, various options for the future are under discussion.
Much depends on the Secretary of State’s decision on the number of additional dwellings to be located in the borough. Ashford’s preferred figure is nearer 9,000, most of which could be accommodated within and around the town. If the decision comes nearer to 12,000, it will be necessary to consider the option of creating a new village.
Canterbury
Canterbury offers limited growth potential because of overriding environmental considerations. Tourism is to be further developed, especially by the provision of more hotels both in the town and in the surrounding countryside. Just as Ashford’s commercial growth will act as a catalyst for the east of the county, so the success of Canterbury as a tourist centre will help to improve visitor numbers in the wider area.
Shepway
At Folkestone, EuroTunnel’s visitor centre is now open and is expected to attract around 200,000 visitors per annum. It is likely that Folkestone will cease to be a channel crossing port and that the harbour will be considered for marina and shopping uses.
In reviewing the Shepway District Plan, it was recognised that radical action was needed to make the most of Folkestone’s position at the point where road vehicles will board and leave the shuttle and where rail freight is to be handled. A substantial amount of development land has been brought forward in the altered local plan, to be adopted in January 1989.
Land has been earmarked to the north of the M20 at Hawkinge: greenfield sites have been allocated for 1,400 dwellings and 10ha of industrial development. It is hoped to attract compact, labour-intensive light industry. Another site to the south of junction 11 of the M20 would be ideal for hi-tech use. An extra 12ha have been zoned to the north of the existing estate at Lympne.
The recent improvement in office take-up suggests that the site to the south-east of the Channel Tunnel visitor centre and one near junction 13 of the M20 will attract office developments.
Shopping developments will undoubtedly continue as the population of the area is increasing. Redevelopment of the town centre is well under way with schemes such as The Lanterns, but potential exists on other sites. Town Walk is the first scheme in the town to be developed specifically for the expanding financial and professional services sector.
Conclusions
Without the tunnel, east Kent would not have been such a focus of attention, and initiatives would undoubtedly have taken longer to set up. The impact of the tunnel will not be entirely positive in all parts of east Kent, but since early 1987 the hitherto little-known area has already indisputably gained from its new “front-line” position:
- The construction work has brought more people and economic activity into the area with immediate positive repercussions for the local economy.
- The planning system has been responsive to the unprecedented pressures and opportunities, and at the county and local levels there is a commitment towards integrating the east of Kent into the new configuration of economic activity.
- Houses and other developments constructed with a positive outlook on the area’s position and potential will act as catalysts for further investment now that the old image has started to be changed for the better.
- New and improved roads will significantly reduce isolation and improve the attractiveness of east Kent for residents and business, especially for those who have been squeezed out of the core area of the South East by rising prices or rents.
There are strong indications that developers, investors, tenants and residents can profit from the identified opportunities. Kent is now in the limelight; east Kent has been given its lines; it is up to the players to perform.
