Not a good idea to take over-ambitious schemes to Westminster council these days. The Abu Dhabi owners of New Scotland Yard were sent away with a flea in their ear after presenting plans drawn up by Squire & Partners. The planners want more public space and more shops. Plans drawn up by architect John McAslan to remodel Millbank Tower for the Reuben brothers into 200 flats and a hotel have also not met with blanket approval. The architect has been told to go away and think again about wanting to add 11 metres to the 119m listed tower and turning the open ground-floor podium into a three-storey “arts and cultural centre”. There is good news. Plans for the long-mooted London Holocaust Museum at or near the scheme are on the agenda.
What will the valuers do?
If you had to précis every forecast for the commercial market in 2016 into a single paragraph, it would read like this: “2015 was a very good year. We recognise that the market is near the top of the cycle. We have therefore prudently modified our growth forecasts.” Never fear, all will be well for years to come. No, there is no need to take these predictions seriously. What will be more serious in the event of a downturn is the actions of valuers. In the last crash under-reporting to IPD resulted in clients simply not believing IPD numbers showing one-tenth of actual falls. How will valuers behave this time around?
Flip, flop, fly
Favourite slide of the year from Stephan Wundrak of TH Real Estate. “Asset flipping is back to 2007 levels” is the title. TH’s head of European research has totted up the number of London investment deals between mid-2007 and mid-2015 that were sold on within 24 months. The 80-degree downslope between 2007 and 2009 is mirrored by an upslope between 2012 and 2014. An admittedly short, but steep, downslope can be detected covering the first half of 2015…
Grainger names the date
Grainger watchers should put 28 January in the diary. That’s the date new chief executive Helen Gordon will be announcing her plans for the £1bn listed residential rental business. Among watchers will be those looking to pounce. Rumours of stalkers wanting to dismember the business for profit have been around for months. A fact of which Gordon, 55, and Grainger chairman Baroness Margaret Ford, 57, are acutely aware.
The formidable duo have been dubbed the “golden girls” by members of the board. Gordon starts work on 1 January. But the former head of restructuring at RBS has already toured the offices to glean ideas. Expect a robust defence on 28 January. Shareholders get to pass judgment at the AGM on 10 February. Afterthought for predators: actually, hasn’t the time now passed for contested M&A activity?
Shop around for a new name
Easy prediction for 2016: the BCSC is going to change its name. That became clear during the speech of out-going president David Atkins, boss of Hammerson. “The name may have failed to keep pace with the nature of the sector,” said Atkins at a less lively than usual annual dinner earlier this month at Grosvenor House.
About a dozen years ago the name of the retail property group was changed from the British Council for Shopping Centres to… wait for it… BCSC. Exchanging an outdated brand for a meaningless set of initials did not seem a terribly good idea at the time. How about “British Retail Forum” I suggested in EG, to no avail, way back then. Well, how about “British Retail Forum” now? Come along BCSC, you know it makes sense.
PS: There is no charge for this repeat prescription.
Early check-out at 5 Strand?
It looks as if Land Securities will be moving from 5 Strand sooner rather than later. Last month, freeholder BlackRock appointed fashionable architect David Adijaye to restyle the yucky cream-cake block. LandSec’s lease runs out in 2018, but my source on the top floor suggests a move out will be made far sooner. No guesses as to where a company building millions of square feet of spec space in Victoria will end up.
